| September 2026 Newsletter |
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How states are increasingly turning to organised crime for covert operations, the political economy sustaining these relationships, and what this means for governments are featured in new research. New research explores illicit economies and uneven development, scam compounds in the China–Myanmar borderlands and Russian war-related illicit trade across the Black Sea. A new publication package examines the paramilitary–organised crime nexus in war-to-peace transitions, with practical guidance for policymakers across peace processes, security sector reform, development, and responses to organised crime. SOC ACE researchers contribute to discussions on state threats, sanctions evasion, corruption, organised crime and hybrid warfare through new publications, policy engagements and media appearances.
…Plus more new research, publications and projects.
Upcoming events
8-11 September: Professor Heather Marquette will lead a panel on Rethinking the Real Politics of Organised Crime in an Era of Growing Scarcity at ECPR 2026 in Krakow. Dr Max Gallien (University of Sussex) will act as discussant, with papers presented by: Prof Heather Marquette and Dr Caryn Peiffer, Dr Liam O’Shea, Elijah Glantz and Cathy Haenlein, Dr Sasha Jeperson and Andrés Aponte. 8 September: Olivia Allison (SECTA Research) will attend the Sanctions Conference in Manchester to discuss how to stay ahead of increasingly sophisticated sanctions evasion.
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| | Discover the latest thinking, research and events shaping our work. Subscribe to our newsletter for a round-up of news and insights. |
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The Changing Face of Organised Crime: RUSI Journal launch |
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To mark the publication of the latest special issue of the RUSI Journal, the think tank convened a dedicated event examining how organised crime is evolving. The event, The Changing Face of Organised Crime, explored how states are responding and whether existing approaches remain fit for purpose in 2026 and beyond. SOC ACE researchers contributed to the discussion, which examined the impact of technological change, geopolitical fragmentation and growing links between criminal, state and commercial actors on the changing nature of organised crime.
Cathy Haenlein, Guest Editor of the special issue, joined fellow SOC ACE researchers Heather Marquette (University of Birmingham), Alexander Kupatadze (King's College London) and Ian Tennant (Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime) as panel speakers, while Matthew Redhead (RUSI) and Elijah Glantz (RUSI) chaired. Matthew Redhead (RUSI) also co-authored a special issue contribution with Heather Marquette.
View the complete panel discussion, New Faces, Old Instincts: How Organised Crime is Changing, on YouTube. |
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Jessica Davis’ CANADALAND Podcast explores Iran-linked attacks on Canada
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| SOC ACE researcher Dr Jessica Davis was featured on the podcast Is Iran Behind Attacks in Canada?, hosted by Noor Azrieh. The episode examined allegations against Iraqi national Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, whom US federal prosecutors accuse of helping coordinate nearly 20 attacks across Europe and North America as an operative of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Davis, a former CSIS strategic analyst and president of Insight Threat Intelligence, discusses the allegations, how state-backed proxy networks and terrorist financing operate, and whether there is credible evidence linking recent attacks on Canadian soil to Iran. |
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Kathryn Westmore joins RUSI Podcast to discuss money laundering in China
Kathryn Westmore, Senior Associate Fellow of the CFS programme, joined RUSI’s Tom Keatinge and the NCA’s Teddy Nicholson on RUSI’s podcast to examine how Chinese money laundering organisations operate, and the growing use of underground banking and informal value transfer systems. The discussion also explored how these networks serve organised crime groups, including those involved in the cocaine trade, and how they are adapting through crypto, fintech-style tools and cross-border criminal services.
Find out more about Kathryn’s SOC ACE research on the threat of Chinese money laundering.
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| | | Prof Heather Marquette joins Global Security Briefing on geopolitics, statecraft and organised crime
Professor Heather Marquette, SOC ACE Director, participated in a Global Security Briefing, hosted by Cathy Haenlein, Director of Organised Crime and Policing at RUSI, alongside Dr Magda Long, an international security researcher and consultant. The discussion, Geopolitics, Statecraft and the Changing Face of Organised Crime, examined the growing overlap between organised crime, state power and geopolitics, including how criminal networks may be used for strategic purposes such as sanctions evasion, acquiring restricted goods and conducting covert operations.
The episode links to SOC ACE research, State Threats: Understanding and responding to the new landscape of hostile state activity, which explores how states exploit organised crime networks for covert operations, and the relationships, financing and command structures that enable state–criminal partnerships. |
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Academics and policymakers discuss how paramilitaries end
SOC ACE researchers from SOAS and the University of Manchester attended a closed workshop hosted by Queen’s University Belfast on 17 June 2026, bringing together academics and policymakers to examine: How do paramilitaries end? Lessons from Academia and Practice.
The workshop explored the challenges of ending paramilitary activity and the implications for conflict management, peacebuilding and post-war crime reduction. Discussions reflected SOC ACE’s wider research into the relationships between paramilitaries, organised crime and illicit economies in conflict-affected settings, including how paramilitary groups’ links to political establishments and criminal economies can shape transitions from war to peace. The researchers’ participation contributed to ongoing dialogue between academic and policy communities on addressing these complex relationships.
Read more about Prof Jonathan Goodhand and Dr Patrick Meehan’s recent research.
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Eliza Lockhart contributes to Hybrid CoE handbook on Russian threats
 Eliza Lockhart (RUSI) has contributed to the new Handbook on the Role of Non-State Actors in Russian Hybrid Threats, produced by the Hybrid Centre of Excellence. The handbook examines how Russia works with, and through, non-state actors across different operational domains, including sabotage, disinformation and cyber operations. It provides an overview of the breadth and depth of Russia’s use of non-state actors and explores the implications for understanding and responding to hybrid threats. The research complements SOC ACE’s focus on the intersection between state activity and organised crime, particularly where hostile states use non-state actors and unconventional methods to pursue strategic objectives.
Lockhart is among the handbook’s contributing authors, alongside researchers Eginhards Volāns, Vladimir Rauta, Magda Long, Andis Kudors and Agata Kleczkowska.
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New RUSI commentary: How Can the EU’s Criminal Network Sanctions Succeed? |
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| A new commentary by Tom Keatinge, Director of the Centre for Finance and Security (CFS), and Kinga Redlowska, Head of CFS Europe, examines what will be needed for the EU’s planned sanctions regime targeting serious organised crime to be effective. Drawing on a CFS workshop in The Hague, How Can the EU’s Criminal Network Sanctions Succeed? considers how sanctions can complement existing law-enforcement tools and disrupt key criminal network enablers and chokepoints.
The commentary builds on SOC ACE research, Assessing the effectiveness of sanctions as a tool to disrupt serious organised crime, which examines the effectiveness of sanctions as a tool to disrupt serious organised crime, including the political, geopolitical and domestic factors that shape sanctions policy and its impact. |
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| | Dr Xu Peng submits evidence to UK Parliament's China and the UK Economy inquiry
Dr Xu Peng (University of Manchester/SOAS) has submitted written evidence to the UK Parliament’s Business and Trade Committee’s China and the UK Economy inquiry, drawing on research from the SOC ACE project The Centrality of the Margins: Borderlands, Illicit Economies and Uneven Development. The evidence examines how criminal economies can exploit legitimate commercial and professional channels to move and embed illicit assets in the UK. Peng highlights vulnerabilities across company law, anti-money laundering supervision, property markets and cross-border enforcement, arguing for stronger front-end safeguards, greater corporate transparency and more structured UK–China cooperation as part of a wider economic security framework.
Read Dr Peng’s submission on the UK Parliament Committees website. |
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| SOC ACE researchers chair panel on brokers and power at Dublin development conference
SOC ACE researchers chaired a panel on brokerage and power at the Development Studies Association’s DSA2026 conference at University College Dublin. Held under the theme Reimagining Development: Power, Agency, and Futures in an Uncertain World, it brought together research examining how brokers shape states, markets and development amid growing fragmentation, conflict and border controls.
Convened by Professor Jonathan Goodhand (SOAS) and Dr Patrick Meehan (University of Manchester) and jointly chaired with Dr Xu Peng, the two-session panel explored the role of brokers across contexts, from paramilitaries and extractive-industry intermediaries to human-trafficking facilitators and digital brokers supporting scam centres in Southeast Asia. |
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| SOC ACE researchers contribute expert perspectives on organised crime and illicit trade
 Research by Dr Alexander Kupatadze (King’s College London) and Dr Erica Marat (Georgetown University) is shedding light on how the war in Ukraine and resulting sanctions are reshaping organised crime and illicit trade across Eurasia. Their findings have been featured in The New Voice of Ukraine and OC Media, which discuss serious crime in Russia, new black markets and the adaptation of established trade networks to facilitate sanctions evasion. Their wider SOC ACE project explores how disrupted supply chains, sanctions, population displacement and changing border dynamics are creating opportunities for organised criminal activity.
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New research examines how illicit economies shape development
New SOC ACE research explores how illicit economies in conflict-affected borderlands are connected to wealth accumulation and development in metropolitan centres. Margins and Metropoles: Illicit Economies and the Making of Uneven Development challenges the idea that violence, poverty and illicit activity in frontier regions simply result from isolation or weak state presence. Instead, the authors Prof Jonathan Goodhand (SOAS, University of London), Dr Patrick Meehan (University of Manchester) and Dr Xu Peng (Manchester / SOAS CIVAD) examine how borderlands can be unequally integrated into wider political economies, providing resources, labour and illicit wealth that contribute to accumulation elsewhere, while local communities bear many of the costs. The research directly informs the SOC ACE project The Centrality of the Margins: Borderlands, Illicit Economies and Uneven Development.
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Matthew Redhead shares SOC ACE research through national security engagements
SOC ACE researcher Matthew Redhead (RUSI) has contributed to a series of recent  discussions on state threats, irregular warfare and Western policy responses. On 24 June, he presented findings from the SOC ACE Weathering the Storm? State Threat Policy Responses project at the Organisation of Irregular Warfare Conference at LSE, organised by the UK Ministry of Defence and the University of Surrey. Speaking on the panel Responding to irregular warfare: Western strategy, capabilities, and coordination, Matthew discussed the West’s strong emphasis on resilience and security measures in responding to state threats. A report co-authored with RUSI Senior Research Fellow Eliza Lockhart is due for publication in November.
In May, Matthew contributed to the inaugural College for National Security (CfNS) state threats course for civil servants at the UK Resilience Academy in York. His session, Old Wine, New Bottles? The Challenge of State Threats, examined the evolving nature of state threats, including the growing role of technology and non-state actors such as organised crime groups. He also appeared on a CfNS UCL podcast, discussing the role of malign state actors in economic and financial domains, Western responses, the limits of resilience and security as deterrents, and the need for a joined-up, whole-of-government approach. The podcast is available to UK civil servants through the internal CfNS platform.
Matthew also attended the IISS-Hanns Seidel Foundation UK conference Are We At War?, held in Essex on 30 June and 1 July. The conference brought together participants to explore contemporary security challenges. At the organisers’ request, details of the discussions cannot be shared. |
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Professor Heather Marquette and Matthew Redhead’s research examines how states are increasingly turning to organised criminal actors to carry out clandestine and covert activities. Their article maps these relationships across four areas: criminals as covert operatives, professional service providers, weapons of crime and sources of covert funding. Drawing on lessons from stabilisation and counterinsurgency, they argue that operational responses alone are unlikely to succeed without addressing the political economy that enables these relationships. The authors propose a state-domain matrix to map these connections and dedicated cross-government cells to support a more integrated response.
The research connects closely with SOC ACE’s work on state threats and Western policy responses, particularly its finding that covert and clandestine activities are central to contemporary state threats. It also highlights the growing role of non-state actors in enabling hostile activity, reinforcing the project’s focus on understanding how states can develop more effective and coordinated responses to an increasingly complex threat landscape. |
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| Addressing the paramilitary–organised crime nexus
A new collection of SOC ACE papers examines the paramilitary–organised crime nexus in war-to-peace transitions, bringing together a research paper, six thematic briefing notes and three country case studies. Collectively, the papers explore the political, economic and security structures that sustain paramilitary power and provide practical guidance for policymakers on addressing these dynamics. Research Paper 42: Paramilitaries and Organised Crime in War-to-Peace Transitions: Policy Challenges and Responses — a global synthesis of trends and the fragmentation of violence: Professor Jonathan Goodhand (SOAS, University of London), Dr Kota Watanabe (NYU Wagner), Dr Patrick Meehan (University of Manchester). Briefing Note 43: A Framework for Policymakers — guiding questions for analysing and addressing the nexus: Professor Jonathan Goodhand (SOAS, University of London) and Dr Patrick Meehan (University of Manchester). Briefing Note 44: Implications for Supporting Peace Processes — considers how paramilitaries can be engaged in peace processes: Professor Jonathan Goodhand (SOAS, University of London) and Dr Patrick Meehan (University of Manchester). Briefing Note 45: Implications for DDR and SSR Programmes — identifies priorities for tailored reform, intelligence and cross-government coordination: Professor Jonathan Goodhand (SOAS, University of London) and Dr Patrick Meehan (University of Manchester). Briefing Note 46: Implications for Development Programmes — five considerations for development programming in affected contexts. Professor Jonathan Goodhand (SOAS, University of London) and Dr Patrick Meehan (University of Manchester). Briefing Note 47: Implications for Addressing Organised Crime — highlights the need to integrate organised crime analysis into conflict and governance assessments. Professor Jonathan Goodhand (SOAS, University of London) and Dr Patrick Meehan (University of Manchester). Briefing Note 48: Guidance for Political Economy Analysis — provides a diagnostic tool for examining the nexus. Professor Jonathan Goodhand (SOAS, University of London) and Dr Patrick Meehan (University of Manchester). Briefing Note 49: Colombia Case Study: Political Negotiations with Paramilitary ‘Allies’ — examines the limitations of approaches focused narrowly on demobilisation: Dr Andrew Thomson (Queen’s University Belfast). Briefing Note 50: Northern Ireland Case Study: A ‘Public Health’ Approach — explores harm reduction and the social and institutional conditions sustaining paramilitary influence: Dr Andrew Thomson (Queen’s University Belfast). Briefing Note 51: Myanmar Case Study: The Paramilitary–Organised Crime Nexus in Myanmar’s Borderlands — examines militias’ structural role in governance, organised crime and transnational illicit economies: Dr Patrick Meehan (University of Manchester).
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Huma Haider (Independent researcher) examines whether transitional justice can  provide a framework for addressing large-scale violence perpetrated or supported by organised crime. Her research explores situations where the boundaries between organised crime and atrocity crimes become blurred, arguing that transitional justice can complement conventional law enforcement with a more comprehensive, human rights-based and victim-centred approach.
Drawing on examples from Colombia, Guatemala and the International Criminal Court, the research identifies lessons including investigating organised and atrocity crimes together, recognising patterns of violence and using collective and symbolic reparations. It also considers challenges including political will, institutional overlap and the risk of overextending transitional justice mechanisms. |
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Dr Xu Peng (Manchester / SOAS CIVAD) examines how online scam compounds have become embedded in the political, economic and physical landscapes of the China–Myanmar borderlands. Focusing on the northern Myanmar–China corridor, the research shows how scam operations depend on cross-border trade routes, recruitment networks, infrastructure and financial systems, alongside fragmented governance involving armed groups, militias, officials, brokers and other intermediaries.
It argues that these compounds are not isolated digital enterprises but part of wider political and economic systems, with scam revenues contributing to local economies while coercion and exploitation sustain operations. The findings highlight the links between illicit digital economies, borderlands and regional development. |
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Olivia Allison (SECTA Research/University of Exeter) and Joshua Coyle (Independent researcher) examine the scale and strategic significance of Russian war-related illicit trade across the Black Sea and its connections to European commercial and financial networks. The paper shows how illicit supply chains support Russia’s military capabilities, generate revenues from occupied Ukrainian territories and undermine sanctions.
Drawing on maritime, satellite and trade data, it maps networks involved in sanctioned goods, pillaged commodities and Russian oil exports, highlighting the role of shipping companies, logistics providers and financial and professional services. The research identifies vulnerabilities in sanctions enforcement and sets out options to strengthen due diligence, coordination and disruption of high-risk networks. |
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The rise of criminal markets in legal commodities
This research from Dr Alexander Kupatadze (King’s College London) examines how organised crime is expanding beyond traditional illicit markets into the trade of legal commodities, including counterfeit medicines, consumer goods, tobacco and fuel. It shows how criminal networks exploit legitimate supply chains, using the same ports, shipping routes, warehouses and logistics providers as legal commerce.
The findings relate to SOC ACE’s Exploring the Consequences of Organised Crime and Illegal Trade Displacement on Eurasia project, which examines how the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia are disrupting licit and illicit supply chains, creating new opportunities for criminal networks and reshaping trafficking routes and markets across the region. The full article is available on the RUSI Journal.
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| When counter-organised crime messaging backfires
Professor Nic Cheeseman and Professor Caryn Peiffer explore how public awareness campaigns around serious and organised crime can influence attitudes towards criminal activity and law enforcement. Drawing on a nationally representative survey experiment in Albania, the research finds that messages emphasising the harms caused by organised crime can reduce confidence in law enforcement and increase support for populist ideas. |
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Corruption and informal welfare in Pakistan
Dr Zahid Mumtaz and Professor Caryn Peiffer explore the relationship between corruption and informal welfare systems in Pakistan, where weaknesses in formal social protection can drive reliance on community, patronage and clientelistic networks.
The research highlights the dual role of corruption. While it can deepen inequality, undermine trust in formal institutions and reinforce patron-client relationships, it can also provide a means for marginalised people to access essential welfare. The authors argue that reform efforts need to recognise the functional role of corruption while addressing the conditions that sustain it, highlighting the difficult balance between tackling corruption and avoiding further disruption to fragile welfare arrangements. Read the full article on Third World Quarterly
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| How illicit finance supports Russian foreign policy
Professor David Lewis and Dr Tena Prelec examine how illicit financial flows (IFF) support Russia’s foreign and security policy. Drawing on empirical evidence, the research, published in Public Integrity, shows how illicit finance enables political interference, information campaigns and military operations, functioning as a tool for advancing state objectives rather than simply as an unintended consequence of corruption. |
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Panel on ‘Rethinking the Real Politics of Organised Crime in an Era of Growing Scarcity’
8-11 September ECPR General Conference 2026, Krakow. Register or find out more here.
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Prof Heather Marquette is to lead a panel on Rethinking the real politics of organised crime in an era of growing scarcity at the upcoming ECPR 2026 conference.
The panel will share new research on rethinking the ‘real politics’ of organised crime across a range of contexts. It aims to contribute to the growing literature on political settlements and inform politically feasible responses to organised crime.
Dr Max Gallien (University of Sussex) will act as discussant with papers presented by:
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Sanctions Conference, Manchester
8 September 2026 | 12:25 - 13:10 (GMT) Hyatt Regency, Central Manchester Register or find out more here. |
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Olivia Allison will join experts from across the sanctions and compliance field for a panel on Staying Ahead of Sanctions Evasion in an Era of Intensified Enforcement. The discussion will explore how governments and organisations can anticipate increasingly sophisticated evasion techniques and strengthen sanctions controls as enforcement activity intensifies. Olivia will bring insights from SOC ACE research into illicit trade and sanctions evasion, contributing to the discussion on emerging risks and the challenges of detecting and disrupting evolving evasion networks. |
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| | | | | Dr Liam O’Shea (SGI Research), in collaboration with the Folke Bernadotte Academy, has co-authored a new crisis management handbook, Responding to Hybrid Threats with Democratic Integrity. Drawing on research into crisis management, hybrid threats and democratic governance, the handbook provides practical guidance for policymakers and practitioners on preparing for and managing crises. It also sets out seven tests, including legality, necessity and proportionality, to help ensure responses strengthen resilience while upholding democratic values.
Cathy Haenlein (RUSI) and Matt Ince (Dragonfly/Dow Jones) have published Reframing Organised Crime as a Strategic UK Intelligence Concern in the RUSI Journal. The article examines how state actors are increasingly using criminal intermediaries to conduct hybrid operations across Europe. While serious and organised crime is formally included in UK intelligence priorities, the authors argue it has been underweighted as a strategic concern despite its growing role in hostile state activity. They examine how this has evolved and the implications for positioning organised crime as a strategic intelligence priority in the UK.
Professor Anna Sergi (University of Bologna) explores the evolution of the ’ndrangheta, the mafia organisation originating in Calabria in the RUSI Journal. In The Mafia Journey from Local Resentment to Global Drug Trafficking, a photo essay reconstructing the life of a contemporary ’ndrangheta member, she examines how mafia organisations combine legal and illegal activities with the ability to both ‘trade’ and ‘govern’. Sergi highlights the organisation’s global reach, particularly its role in cocaine trafficking, and introduces the concept of ‘mafia ubiquity’ to describe how the ’ndrangheta has become simultaneously translocal, transcultural and increasingly present in both physical and digital spaces.
Matthew Redhead (RUSI) has contributed to Spies, Culture, and Society: Coming in from the Cold, edited by Simon Willmetts and Constant Hijzen and published by Georgetown University Press in 2026.
Dr Anton Moiseienko (Australian National University) has published Corruption Sanctions: What Governments Need to Know, examining how governments can respond to serious corruption when those responsible are beyond the reach of domestic law enforcement. The paper explores how corruption sanctions, including asset freezes and travel bans, have evolved over the past decade. It highlights their flexibility as a tool for disrupting and deterring corruption, supporting asset recovery and signalling international condemnation, while also examining limitations including weak post-sanctions strategies, broad government discretion and due process concerns.
Eliza Lockhart, (RUSI) was interviewed on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on July 6 about the growing political significance of cryptocurrency. Drawing on her research into cryptocurrencies in UK politics, she discussed how crypto is being used to influence politics through industry lobbying, crypto-generated wealth and political donations, and highlighted gaps in current safeguards for detecting opaque or malign sources of funding.
Dr Jessica Davis, (Insight Threat Intelligence) with Professor Michael Nesbitt (University of Calgary), has been awarded a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) Insight Development Grant for Bridging the Divide: Cryptocurrency, Sanctions Evasion, and the Fragmentation of Global Finance. The project will examine how digital assets are reshaping sanctions evasion and the international financial system, as well as the policy responses needed to address emerging risks.
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| | | | If you’ve used any of SOC ACE’s research to inform policy and/or practice, let us know by sending us an email at:
socace@contacts.bham.ac.uk |
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