State Threats: Understanding and responding to the new landscape of hostile state activity
Project Live
PROJECT TEAM
Matthew Redhead
Royal United Services Institute
Matthew Redhead is a senior associate fellow at RUSI. He is a former civil servant, management consultant and senior leader in financial crime intelligence in the private sector.
He has served as a government official at the Ministry of Defence (MoD), and on secondment at the Office of Security and Counter-Terrorism (OSCT) at the Home Office. He also has extensive experience in financial services, having trained as a ‘front office’ banker for HSBC in the 1990s, and worked for seven years in various senior roles in that same bank’s financial crime risk function, leaving as Global Head of Strategic Intelligence in April 2018. He is currently a freelance writer and consultant on issues relating to national security, intelligence and economic and financial crime and security.
Eliza Lockhart
Royal United Services Institute
Eliza Lockhart is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Finance and Security at RUSI. Her research examines matters at the intersection of law, finance, and global security; with a particular focus on how evidence-based policy can promote democratic resilience and protect the rule of law against foreign interference. Eliza’s current projects include whistleblowing, state threats and economic security.
Eliza is a lawyer and legal policy expert. She previously worked in Australia for Linklaters and has experience with international financial crime investigations, whistleblower investigations and high-profile litigation. Prior to joining RUSI, Eliza was Associate to The Hon. Justice Kenny AM, a senior judge of the Federal Court of Australia and Chairperson of the Australian Electoral Commission.
Eliza holds a Master of Laws (LL.M.) and an MPhil in Public Policy, both with Distinction from the University of Cambridge.
PROJECT SUMMARY
Over the last decade, states have faced a rising tide of hostile activities perpetrated by state actors and their partners using hybrid or unusual methods as vectors of attack which sit in the ‘grey’ zone between peace and war . This body of activities has become known by a variety of terms, such as ‘state threats’, ‘hostile state activity’ and ‘hostile activity by states’. Despite the growing importance of state threats as a specific policy challenge, current research on this topic has been limited.
Through a series of workshops with experts and practitioners, the need for a more precise definition of state threats and a clearer understanding of their scale, scope and character became apparent. In addition, as the issue of state threats has risen on the agenda, there is increasing interest in understanding the policy responses deployed against these threats and their perceived effectiveness. This research project addresses these needs.
Phase one of this research critically examined the language used to describe state threats and related concepts, including ‘hybrid’ and ‘grey zone’ activity, to develop a more robust conceptual framework to map their defining characteristics and operational patterns. Key findings, presented in the research paper ‘Old wine, new bottles?’ and a series of synthesis papers reviewing state threat actions of revisionist states, demonstrate that:
Covert and clandestine activities largely define ‘state threats’ actions, but they are often used in concert with more overt means of coercion such as diplomatic coercion and economic threats.
Although espionage, repression, sabotage and subversion are not new phenomena, much is unprecedented about the current state threats landscape. The volume and range of hostile activities being deployed are at a scale never seen before, taking advantage of new vulnerabilities in society, such as social media and societal reliance on technology.
The main perpetrators of hostile state activity are well-known - Russia, Iran, North Korea and China. However, a process of 'geopolitical climate change', driven by changing economic and political realities, has also encouraged several so-called ‘middle-powers’ to adopt similar methods. This development raises the risk that state threat type actions will proliferate in use, engendering instability in targeted states, and encouraging an escalatory cycle of tit-for-tat responses.
The second phase of research, currently underway, focuses on how Western states are responding to the challenge of state threats. It seeks to provide a more detailed understanding of Western strategies and policies, map out how, when and why such responses are applied, and identify whether there are broad patterns and ‘styles’ in approaches to hostile actions. Through review of academic and grey literature, as well as first-hand interviews, the research will offer insights for policymakers and practitioners on the perceived effectiveness of the range of policy response options.
PUBLICATIONS
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Old Wine, New Bottles? The Challenge of State Threats (Research Paper 32)
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Old Wine, New Bottles? The Challenge of State Threats (Briefing Note 37)
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An absence of peace, a rumour of war: The problem of defining state threats (SOC ACE Synthesis Paper 01)
Beyond the horizon: Revisionist states, middle powers and state threats in the Global South (SOC ACE Synthesis Paper 02)
Velvet glove, iron fist: Understanding China’s use of state threats (SOC ACE Synthesis Paper 03)
The hidden front: Russia's ongoing state threats campaign (SOC ACE Synthesis Paper 04)
The logic of resistance: The ongoing state threats challenge from Iran (SOC ACE Synthesis paper 05)
MEDIA & EVENTS
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RUSI State Threats Workshop: Perspectives from Germany and the UK: The Centre for Finance and Security (CFS) at RUSI, in partnership with SOC ACE, convened a workshop to discuss the current threats Germany is facing from state actors, 14 March 2024. Read RUSI Conference Report from Eliza Lockhart.
Research Paper Launch Event ‘Old Wine, New Bottles? The Challenge of State Threats’ held on 14 January 2025 at RUSI’s 61 Whitehall. Matthew Redhead (RUSI) and expert panellists, Prof Rory Cormac and RUSI Board Member, Suzanne Raine discuss the research papers findings and consider the scale and scope of contemporary threats, potential future trends, and policy responses.
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Carvin, S., David, J., West, L., (Hosts). (25 February 2025), Implausible Deniability: The New Age of State Threats, in Secure Line Podcast. Canadian Association for Security & Intelligence Studies (CASIS)
Tom Keatinge, Suzanne Raine and Dr Jason Shepherd, ‘Power, Wealth and State Threats’. RUSI Suspicious Transaction Report Podcast, 23 June 2023.
Keatinge, T., and Redhead, M., (17 January 2025) Episode 10: State Threats - Same Old Same Old, or Something Different? Suspicious Transaction Report Podcast, RUSI
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Blackall, M. (2025., Jan 15) 'Arson, sabotage, cyber attacks': UK enters new era of threats from hostile states’ The i Paper.
Burke, J. (2025, Aug 26)‘Iran has a long history of clandestine attacks abroad to further its ends’ The Guardian.
Corera, G. (2025, Nov 30) ‘Playing Spies’. BBC Radio 4.
UPTAKE & IMPACT
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Clean foundations for growth: Unlocking economic opportunity by tackling economic crime, published by the UK Parliament’s All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Fair Banking, Anti‑Corruption and Responsible Tax, and the UK Anti‑Corruption Coalition
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