In this edition, explore the latest from the SOC ACE family, including media appearances by our researchers in The Guardian and on CNN. Discover three new synthesis papers by Matthew Redhead examining state threats from China, Russia, and the Middle Powers. Learn about an exciting new research project - Organised Crime, Environmental Exploitation, and Indigenous Communities - led by Huma Haider. Plus, catch up on five new researcher articles published in leading academic journals.

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In the second paper of the Synthesis Paper series, Matthew Redhead’s Beyond the horizon: Revisionist states, middle powers and state threats in the Global South examines the role of middle powers in state threats activity.

Describing their scope and scale of that activity, and shows how they are state threats actors and state threat target. He goes on to offer key observations for future policymakers.

In the fourth paper of the Synthesis Paper series, Matthew Redhead’s The Hidden Front: Russia's Ongoing State Threats Campaign examines the regime’s state threat practices.

Describing their scope and scale, as well as Russia’s use of third parties to carry out hostile activities, he goes on to offer key observations for future policymakers.

In the third paper of the Synthesis Paper series, Matthew Redhead’s Velvet glove, iron fist: Understanding China’s use of state threats examines the regime’s state threat practices.

Describing their scope and scale, as well as the use of the Chinese diaspora and business, Matthew characterises China as more cautious in its hostile activities. He also notes that the regime has considerable capacity for greater state threat actions.

Matthew Redhead talks about Iran and its links to recent attacks in Australia. He describes Iran’s history in such state actions, but says they indicate weakness and ‘smack of desperation’. He adds they are designed to signal a continuing ability to act, and a desire to impress Iran’s Middle Eastern supporters, but ‘we shouldn’t get overexcited about their capabilities’.

Olivia Allison’s interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe addressed the negotiations for peace in Ukraine. She added the negotiations might be lengthy, and the parties’ initial tough negotiating positions could be expected to change. She highlighted the role of multiple voices in Russian domestic discourse—particularly those of Russian nationalists. She also responded to a question regarding apparent nervousness in defence and commodity markets.

See what’s been happening across the SOC ACE family, including new publications on state threats from Matthew Redhead and on the ‘Looting of Mariupol’, authored by Olivia Allison and David Lewis. And find out where SOC ACE research is informing thinking on scam centres in Myanmar, evidence-driven, cross-sector interventions to tackle organised crime in Latin America, and the value of whistleblower reward schemes in the UK Government’s response to economic crime. Sign up here to regularly receive the newsletter direct to your inbox.

Launching the SOC ACE synthesis paper series Matthew Redhead’s ‘An absence of peace, a rumour of war: The problem of defining state threats’ offers a new definitional working model and key observations to policy makers.

Using evolving strategic thinking, interviews with field-experts, and definitions from allied-powers as case studies, the paper synthesises these to identify the core criteria for a pragmatic working model. Concluding, he offers five key observations for future policy makers.

In a new SOC ACE project, Huma Haider will review the evidence on and explore the linkages between organised crime, the environment and the welfare of Indigenous communities, providing a more holistic understanding and a broader view of this complex landscape. The review seeks to draw out key evidence on these topics to inform more effective response efforts that consider these three sets of dynamics.

Drawing on three years of research funded by SOC ACE, David H. Ucko (NATO) and Thomas A. Marks (NDU) have published their new monograph ‘A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare’, with NDU Press. The book offers a Framework of Analysis and Action, to guide policymakers and practitioners in responding to the issue of organised crime.

Drawing extensively on his SOC ACE funded research, David’s new book explains how Russia has sought to subjugate South-Eastern Ukrainian provinces through a toxic mix of violence, political influence and economic coercion, creating an ersatz ‘new Russia’; a microcosm of the contemporary Russian Federation.

From the SOAS CIVAD team undertaking SOC ACE-funded research, The centrality of the margins: Borderlands, illicit economies and uneven development, comes their first research output, asking what explains the concentration and resilience of scam compounds in remote, war-affected borderland regions of Myanmar.

Academic journal, Public Integrity, has published research by Prof David Lewis and Dr Tena Prelec, titled ‘Corruption and Revisionism: The Role of Illicit Finance in Russian Foreign Policy ‘, which draws on their work under the SOC ACE research project, Illicit Finance and Russian Foreign Policy: New dynamics and linkages. Open Access, this article is free to read by all.

Today see’s publication of SOC ACE Briefing Note 37, summarising Matthew Redhead’s recent research paper on State Threats. This 9-page note offers a concise overview of the concept of state threats, provides firmer definitional boundaries of the term, and explores the scale, scope and character of modern state threats within them. Concluding with possible implications for the future, this valuable briefing note will introduce you to the concept of state threats and sign-post you to further reading and discussion.

Eliza Lockhart joins panellists in an OECD Knowledge Partner Session to discuss the legal framework needed to permit whistleblowers to play a key role in winning major anti-corruption cases. Eliza draws on findings of her recent SOC ACE supported research on financial rewards for whistleblowers in the fight against economic crime.

See what’s been happening across the SOC ACE family including the publication and launch of major new research on Colombia’s Total Peace Policy (GI-TOC), watch the webinar launching new research on Russia’s economic occupation of Ukraine (Olivia Allison and David Lewis), and read new articles on illicit markets in the frontier region of Balochistan. Sign up here to regularly receive the newsletter direct to your inbox.

Watch the recording of the SOC ACE webinar launching new research by Olivia Allison (University of Exeter) and David Lewis, Looting Mariupol: Russia’s use of illicit finance and economic crime in occupied Ukraine. Watch Olivia and Tom Keatinge (RUSI) discuss the research findings and consider their potential implications for what comes next for Mariupol.

New research available that investigates Russia’s programme of investment in Mariupol, attempting to turn Mariupol into a showcase Russian city to legitimise its occupation of Ukrainian territory. Accompanied by the illicit seizure of thousands of Ukrainian homes, businesses and assets, Russia plans to make Mariupol the centre of a new transport network, which will ensure the resupply of Russian forces on the frontline and in Crimea.

Olivia Allison & David Lewis

May 2025

Join the SOC ACE Webinar to launch new research by Olivia Allison (University of Exeter/RUSI), ‘Looting Mariupol: Russia’s use of illicit finance and economic crime in occupied Ukraine’ and explore how Russia is using illicit finance and economic crime in occupied Ukraine to create new networks and bolster vested interests, often linked to Russian security services.

Register here or click through for more information!

Today four new publications launch from the research team behind the SOC ACE research project, ‘Negotiating with criminal groups: Colombia’s Total Peace Policy’. The publications, available in English and Spanish, explore the institutional architecture, and analyse the recent trajectory, of Colombia’s ambitious and comprehensive Total Peace Policy, that seeks to encourage actors to lay down their arms, reduce armed confrontation and lessen the impact of violence on communities and civilians.