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| | | | Each month, we’ll be showcasing our latest research, news & events. Click on the subscribe button to receive our newsletter. |
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| This month, we’re excited about launching a new SOC ACE Synthesis Paper series |
| SOC ACE Synthesis will bring together existing SOC ACE research findings around specific themes, geographies and other issues with the aim of providing accessible outputs to develop new knowledge, further our understanding and distil evidence for improved decision-making by policymakers, practitioners and operational staff. Papers may synthesise findings from several SOC ACE research projects, or they may synthesise findings across several research outputs within larger projects.
The first SOC ACE Synthesis Paper is out now. Matthew Redhead’s new paper - ‘The absence of peace a rumour of war: The problem of defining state threats’ - draws and builds upon the discussion of state threats definitions in his recent research paper. The paper sets out how state threats are conceptualised by policymakers and practitioners, including the evolution of strategic thinking concerning hybrid warfare, ‘grey zone’ and intelligence conflicts, and offers a new ‘working model’ for policymakers and practitioners with four definitional core criteria: the threat’s severity in falling short of a ‘war-threshold’; the source of the threat as being state-encouraged or enacted by either state or non-state actors; the character of the threat as underhand and undermining or in abusing rules and norms; and the threat’s motivation or intentionality. Several new Synthesis Papers coming out of Matthew’s large research project are in the pipeline, including both geographic and thematic focus areas.
We are currently developing a list of priorities for synthesis, and we welcome views from our readers on what areas you would like to see us cover, if possible. Please get in touch by emailing socace@contacts.bham.ac.uk and keep up to date on future synthesis - and all of our research - by signing up for our newsletter. |
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| | | | Whistling up government policy change |
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| | | The role of stigma in the global trade system |
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| | State Threats and hostile actions in the ‘grey zone’ |
| Matthew Redhead’s research on state threats has featured in a RUSI Commentary from Dr Robert Schuett (STK Powerhouse & University of Durham) and Dr Luca Trenta (Swansea University) on Covert Wars, Criminal Gangs, and the ‘New Threat’ Environment. The authors argue that new state threats ‘can be understood as violations of legitimate international practices’, in line with Matthew’s argument that current ‘grey zone’ activities represent episodes of ‘statecraft conducted in bad faith’ that ‘violate accepted “rules of the game”’, bending and twisting accepted normss related to espionage and covert action. Drawing on the ‘English School’ of International Relations theory, they propose new ways in which reframing the threats can open up opportunities for policymakers and ‘expand the toolkit’ for counterintelligence and tackling organised crime. |
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| | | | | | | Drawing on three years of research funded by SOC ACE, David H.Ucko and Thomas A. Marks have published a new open-access book, A Framework for Countering Organised Crime: Strategy, Planning, and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare with NDU Press.
This monograph proposes ‘A Framework for Analysis and Action’, adapted from the authors’ framework for tackling irregular warfare, to guide the analysis and planning of those who are charged with responding to the challenge of organised crime. The book walk readers through each section of the approach to support its application to organised crime, offering a “user guide” to facilitate its rapid employment by policymakers and practitioners. |
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| | | | Two new state threats publications from Matthew Redhead |
| | A NEW briefing note by Matthew Redhead provides an accessible summary of his recently published full research paper, ‘Old bottles, new wine? The challenge of state threats’. The research finds that while much of what might be called ‘state threats’ are not new, there is significant evidence their volume, range and operationalisation, as well as their relative cheapness and deniability allow states to attempt to undermine, coerce and influence their opponents, with limited risk of starting a major war. This makes them attractive tools for politically assertive states in a time of rapid geographical change. The note concludes with warnings for policymakers about the potential impact of these activities to grow more damaging over time as societal resilience wears down, new technologies emerge, hostile actors’ risk tolerances increase and more states participate. |
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| THE FIRST SOC ACE synthesis series, a new paper titled, ‘The absence of peace, a rumour of war; The problem of defining state threats’, by Matthew Redhead draws and builds upon the discussion of state threats definitions presented in his recent research paper. The paper sets out how state threats are conceptualised by policymakers and practitioners, including the evolution of strategic thinking concerning hybrid warfare, ‘grey zone’ and intelligence conflicts. The paper goes on to offer a new ‘working model’ for policymakers and practitioners with four definitional core criteria: the threat’s severity in falling short of a ‘war-threshold’; the source of the threat as being state-encouraged or enacted by either state or non-state actors; the character of the threat as underhand and undermining or in abusing rules and norms; and the threat’s motivation or intentionality.
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| | | | | | | A new RUSI podcast titled, Strengthening the Financial Frontline on Russia Trade Sanctions, see’s SOC ACE researcher and RUSI associate fellow Olivia Allison, join RUSI’s CFS Director, Tom Keatringe, and financial crime specialist, Jinesh Amin, to discuss how banks have responded to mounting government expectations to restrict the funding and resourcing of the Russian military. GI ACE has launched a new research project on ‘Resisting state capture from the grassroots: Civil society efforts and public perceptions’ in South Africa, led by Dr Caryn Peiffer (University of Bristol), Prof Nic Cheeseman (University of Birmingham) and Dr Zenobia Ismail (University of Birmingham). The new research builds on earlier research projects funded by SOC ACE (Fighting serious organised crime and corruption in Albania: Testing messaging approaches and State capture and serious organised crime in South Africa: The case of the South African Revenue Service) and by SOAS ACE (Making anti-corruption messaging effective: the critical importance of feasibility and targeting), among others. Dr Jessica Davis’ new Insight Monitor article on the ‘Digital blow to Tehran: Hackers disrupt Iran’s illicit finance network’ discusses cyber-attacks carried out by the Israeli-backed Gonjeshke Darande (Predatory Sparrow) hacker group on the Nobitex cryptocurrency exchange, Iran’s illicit finance network. RUSI’s Organised Crime and Policing (OCP) team has launched a new project looking at Organised Crime, Terror and Insecurity in Africa. Drawing on empirical research in Mozambique and Nigeria, the project examines gaps in current knowledge regarding sub-national perceptions of insecurity, local-level perceptions of key threats, and top-down approaches to policymaking.
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| | | If you’ve used any of SOC ACE’s research to inform policy and/or practice, let us know by sending us an email at:
impact-socace@contacts.bham.ac.uk |
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