A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning, and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare
July 2025
Book (NDU Press)
Dr David H. Ucko, NATO
Dr Thomas A. Marks, National Defense University
SOC ACE project: Organised crime as irregular warfare: a framework for assessment and strategic response
PUBLICATION SUMMARY
States continue to struggle in their efforts to counter organised crime. Despite states having scored successes at the operational level, organised crime has proven too adaptable and too resilient to be seriously affected. The result is a steady erosion of the rule of law, of norms of sovereignty, of governance, and of human security.
This monograph is based on the urgent need for a more effective response to organised crime. Its key contributions are twofold. First, it applies an “irregular warfare” lens to the problem of organised crime, helping to situate the divergent criminal activity within its crucial political context. It frames “threat actors” not as isolated problems but as symptoms of a socioeconomic-political system that must be understood and addressed, and focuses attention on the political drivers of illicit behaviour, the contested narratives among the actors involved, and the need for a broader response than typically employed.
Second, the authors propose an analytical framework to aid practitioners in their assessment of, and their response to, organised crime. This approach - the Framework for Analysis and Action - adapted from an approach for addressing irregular warfare challenges, aims to guide the analysis and planning of those who are charged with responding to the challenge of organised crime.
The Framework for Analysis and Action offers a sequence of prompts, informed by two decades of recent analytical experience with irregular warfare. Though no panacea for the current crisis of strategy, an analytical framework is an indispensable starting point for all that must follow.
The monograph walks through each section of the adapted approach to support its application to organised crime, offering an abbreviated “user’s guide” in Appendix A to facilitate its rapid employment by policymakers and practitioners.
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