This paper is the second of a three-part series exploring the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime. This research paper examines the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime in frontier regions, through detailed case study analysis of these phenomena in the borderlands of Afghanistan, Myanmar and Colombia.

Prof Jonathan Goodhand, Dr Patrick Meehan, Camilo Acero & Jan Koehler

January 2024

This paper is the first of a three-part series exploring the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime. It advances a conceptual framework for analysing the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime in borderland and frontier regions.

Dr Patrick Meehan & Professor Jonathan Goodhand

January 2024

This annotated bibliography includes research and evidence on militarised approaches to combating serious and organised crime (SOC) in various contexts. Militarised approaches involve using military forces or methods to deter and disrupt SOC groups. These approaches have been employed in states facing high levels of violence, fragile and conflict-affected contexts, post-conflict settings, and against threats like piracy and wildlife crime.

Luke Kelly

December 2023

In recent years, concerns over information manipulation have grown, particularly the disinformation tactics employed by authoritarian regimes. Yet, the role of non-state actors, specifically organised crime (OC) groups, in shaping information landscapes remains overlooked. Drawing from Nicholas Barnes' 'political criminality' concept, this paper investigates the complex connections between criminal actors and the state. The research spans various regions, with a strong focus on Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, Russia, Moldova (Transnistria), and Albania.

Dr Tena Prelec

October 2023

This paper presents the ‘Framework of Analysis and Action’, originally designed for irregular warfare challenges, as an analytical framework to aid the assessment of and response to, organised crime. The framework builds on an instructional method long used within the College of International Security Affairs (CISA), at the U.S. National Defense University, to prepare practitioners for insurgency, terrorism, and state-based subversion. This report offers an adapted framework to help those charged with responding to organised crime with their anaysis and planning.

Dr David Ucko & Dr Thomas Marks

September 2023

This paper examines the practices used to evade sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, focusing on the import–export operations of Russia, Belarus, Georgia, and Kazakhstan. The research finds that sanctions have not cut supplies to Russia but have instead empowered informal trade networks and intermediaries. Georgia and Kazakhstan have indirectly benefited from the increased transiting trade; however, the impact on the shadow economy and traditional organised crime has been minimal because sanctions-busting is not illegal in these countries.

Dr Erica Marat & Dr Alexander Kupatadze

August 2023

Negotiating with organised crime groups and addressing criminal agendas in peace processes has become a reality in practice. There is, however, limited research on negotiating with criminal actors in peace processes. In seeking to address this gap, this paper reviews scholarly and practitioner literature across a wide range of research disciplines and demonstrates the importance of creating a framework for engaging with criminality and organised crime groups that extends beyond confrontation – allowing for accommodation and incorporating a wider societal change agenda through transformation.

Huma Haider

May 2023

This paper contributes to research on the relationship between conflict and organised crime (the crime–conflict nexus), using Afghanistan as a case study. For the past four decades, Afghanistan has been plagued by internal armed conflict, influenced by local, national, regional and international external actors, and the intricate relationships among them. To varying degrees, power, politics and criminality informed these relationships. Organised crime provide actors in Afghanistan with significant political power, while powerful political actors are uniquely positioned to reap the profits of the country’s criminal markets. This paper gives an account of the existing literature on Afghanistan’s crime–conflict nexus, identifying some of the key insights that this literature has revealed. To do so, it uses a four-pronged framework, exploring how conflict has fuelled organised crime in Afghanistan; how organised crime has fuelled conflict; how conflict over the control of illicit markets has resulted; and how organised crime has contributed to the erosion of the state. By assessing the literature on Afghanistan’s crime–conflict nexus, the paper identifies knowledge gaps and suggests areas for future research.

Annette Idler, Frederik Florenz, Ajmal Burhanzoi, John Collins, Marcena Hunter & Antonio Sampaio

April 2023

State capture occurs when a small number of influential actors in the public and private sectors collude to change rules, regulations, legislation and institutions to further their own narrow interests at the expense of the broader public interest. In South Africa, there have been widespread allegations that several state-owned enterprises and other agencies were infiltrated by persons close to President Jacob Zuma and that they radically altered the processes and functions of these entities to serve the interests of a few individuals and companies linked to Zuma. This research examines how one institution, the South African Revenue Service (SARS), was captured and the detrimental impact of this on the capacity of SARS to detect, investigate and prevent tax and financial crimes. The literature on state capture generally does not provide detailed accounts of how specific institutions are captured or the impact on their capability and functioning; this research suggests that the further case studies may lead to improvements in our understanding of the scale of the impacts of state capture on institutions in the public sphere.

Zenobia Ismail & Robin Richards

March 2023

This scoping research looks at the potential for sensemaking for tackling challenges that arise when multi-agency teams are tasked with tackling the same problems – in this case, serious organised crime – but with unclear and potentially competing or conflicting mandates and incentives. We look at how sensemaking can help in better uncovering the ways in which different agencies approach the problem focusing on framing effects (e.g., assumptions, beliefs, desired consequences, expected risks and so on). We consider how this can lead to differences in consequences and potential for conflict and suggest an approach for improved multi-agency analysis and decision-making.

Chris Baber, Andrew Howes, James Knight & Heather Marquette

August 2022

This paper argues that political settlements analysis and an understanding of elite bargains need to incorporate a deeper and more systematic exploration of serious organised crime (SOC), since this affects critical elements related to the nature and quality of elite bargains and political settlements. In particular, the paper examines how SOC affects these issues – from the elites that constitute a bargain or settlement, to violence and stability, to ‘stateness’, or the extent to which a state is anchored in society, state capacity and political will, to legitimacy and electoral politics.

Alina Rocha Menocal

May 2022

This paper examines the links between illegal drug trafficking, violence, and corruption in Central Asia. The research demonstrates how drug trafficking is highly organised with major criminal and state actors participating in the illicit activity. Criminal violence is spread across the region, especially in urban areas, but the Central Asian states are capable of intercepting and preventing illicit activities. By analysing big data on violence, drug interdictions, and patterns of corruption in the region between 2015 and 2022, we explain the relationship between drug trafficking and key actors from the criminal underworld and state agencies in Central Asia.

Erica Marat & Gulzat Botoeva

May 2022

This briefing note – part of a project advancing a new conceptual framework designed to improve our understanding of Russian illicit financial flows (IFFs) as linked to foreign policy (FP) aims – provides an overview of Russia’s economic presence in South Eastern Europe. It first considers its interaction with the post-Yugoslav region as a whole, then zooming into the patterns at play in Serbia and Montenegro. These two countries have had a dramatic change in relations with Russia in 2014, when Montenegro implemented sanctions after the annexation of Crimea, and Serbia did not. This juncture offers a clear opportunity to think about the extent to which IFF from Russia are linked to foreign policy considerations.

Tena Prelec

May 2022

This paper charts the history of Afghanistan’s interaction with the international drug control system and the complex relationship between national–international policy formation. Drawing on primary documentation from US and British archives, as well as secondary literature and interviews, it tells the story of Afghanistan’s relationship with and impact on evolving global drug regulations from the birth of the League of Nations drug control system through the 1961 UN Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs and up to the present day. The research suggests the need for a more nuanced historical awareness of Afghanistan’s role within multilateral drug control as a way to understand its roles in the creation of the modern licit drug economy and its continued role in the modern illicit drug economy. Further, it demonstrates the need to engage broader society in discussions, to ensure more continuity is built into the system—as relationships built with the old regime in Afghanistan have collapsed.

John Collins & Ian Tennant

May 2022

This briefing note summarises Albanians’ attitudes towards corruption and serious organised crime (SOC) based on a nationally representative survey of 3,003 people conducted between 15 January and 27 February 2022. All Albanians over the age of 18 were eligible to participate in the survey. All interviews were conducted at the household level, face to face, and in Albanian. The research identifies key patterns and variations in public opinion in order to inform policymakers and lay the foundation for the further research.

Nic Cheeseman & Caryn Peiffer

May 2022

This research uses decades of lessons and experience gained in irregular warfare (IW) – and in counterinsurgency in particular – to assist assessment and response to organised crime. Whereas recent experience with counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan presents mostly cautionary tales, tremendous insight can be gained from the scholarship and precedents that emanate from the broader field. Applying IW theory and experience to the problem of organised crime emphasises its indispensable context: how societies work, how governance and economic practice become corrupted, and how states can react, both to suppress the problem of crime but also to address its root causes. In this first phase of the research, lessons for strategy, policy and practice are identified, and plans for follow-on research where a framework for assessment and action previously elaborated for irregular challenges will be adapted for the specific problem of organised crime to assist in analysis and response.

David Ucko & Thomas Marks

May 2022

Organised crime poses one of the greatest threats to national security and development in the 21st century. Despite this, most policy, data collection, and scholarly research focuses on individuals and disorganised violence. Our work addresses several critical gaps in knowledge in the context of Medellín, Colombia’s second largest and most important city.

Christopher Blattman, Benjamin Lessing & Santiago Tobón

May 2022

Organised criminal activities, by their nature, are hard to measure. Administrative data are often missing, problematic, or misleading. Moreover, organised criminal activities are under-reported, and under-reporting rates may be greatest where gangs are strongest. Here we draw on our experience in Colombia, Brazil, and Liberia of collecting systematic data on illicit activities and armed groups, in order to share our learning with other researchers or organisations that fund research in this area, who may find this useful for their own research. We address: first steps before asking questions, common challenges and solutions, and alternative sources.

Christopher Blattman, Benjamin Lessing, Juan Pablo Mesa-Mejía & Santiago Tobón

May 2022

Strategies to counter serious organised crime (SOC) and corruption typically include an awareness-raising or messaging element. The hope is that this will engender both intolerance of corruption and SOC as well as public support for non-corrupt leaders and anti-SOC policies. A growing body of research, however, suggests that raising awareness of ‘social bads’ like organised crime and corruption may risk doing more harm than good. This research therefore aims to examine what effect a range of messaging strategies would have in Albania, a country that struggles with the malign effects of both corruption and SOC. It is therefore imperative to develop effective anti-SOC and anti-corruption strategies. The research tests the effect of different kinds of anti-SOC and anti-corruption messages in Albania, reporting on a nationally representative sample of 3,003 Albanian adults. The research finds similar negative impacts of messaging campaigns, considering whether the best way forward is to design new kinds of messages, or to move away from messaging campaigns in favour of deeper and more sustained forms of engagement. In either case, the path ahead should involve rigorous testing in order to avoid unintended consequences and ensure that investments are well spent.

Nic Cheeseman & Caryn Peiffer

May 2022

This short evidence review paper, written before February 2022, looks at the links between corruption, crime and conflict in eastern Ukraine. As well as explaining the background to the conflict in eastern Ukraine (at the time of writing), the paper also looks at the pre-conflict situation with regard to organised crime and corruption and how organised crime and corruption play a role in, and have been impacted by, the conflict.

Iffat Idris

May 2022