The third in a series of synthesis papers, Matthew Redhead addresses China as a state threats actor. He describes the scope and nature of China’s activity, providing an overview of actions which, while more cautious than those of other revisionist states, are becoming more aggressive in some areas and have the potential for further escalation.

Matthew Redhead (RUSI)

September 2025

Drawing on the findings of two new research papers from the SOC ACE research project, “Negotiating with Criminal Groups: Colombia’s Total Peace”, this briefing note summarises lessons for negotiating with criminal groups found through fieldwork in three regions of Colombia – Buenaventura, Arauca and Tumaco. The note focuses on two critical issues that emerge in contexts where rebel and criminal governance coexist with formal institutions.

Felipe Botero, Juanita Durán, Kyle Johnson, Mariana Botero, Andrés F. Aponte, Lina M. Asprilla.

March 2025

From the combination of traditional intelligence tradecraft with new technologies, attempts to innovate, a willingness to take greater risks, and a growing willingness to contract out activities to both licit and illicit non-state actors – especially organised crime groups, this research shows there is much that is new about the rising tide of hostile activities perpetrated by state actors and their partners; state threats.  

This paper offers firmer definitional boundaries of state threats, and within them, explores the scale, scope and characteristics of their modern manifestation, especially - but not exclusively - from a Western perspective. It shows that many hostile activities are taking advantage of the new vulnerabilities in society, such as social media and societal reliance on technology, and that state threats have become more important as tools of policy due to “geopolitical climate change”, including perceived changes in global power balances and receding agreement on international norms of behaviour.

The paper concludes that whilst evidence suggests the results of these kinds of activities are mixed, they remain an attractive form of coercive statecraft in the medium term, and that if sustained over the long term, could have more severe effects on open societies that have robust protections in place.

Matthew Redhead (RUSI)

January 2025

This paper evaluates the evidence on the use of reward programmes for whistleblowers who report economic crimes, evaluating it against the key concerns in the debate surrounding the implementation of such schemes. It offers four observations for policymakers considering use of whistleblower rewards programmes in the fight against economic crime.

Eliza Lockhart

December 2024

This briefing note summarises an evidence review paper exploring how security and justice institutions, organised crime, security sector reform and governance and counter-organised crime interventions influence and impact each other, positively and negatively.

Huma Haider

July 2024

Negociar con grupos de crimen organizado en procesos de paz es ahora una realidad práctica; sin embargo, la investigación sobre este tema sigue siendo limitada. Este documento aborda esta laguna revisando diversa literatura y resaltando la necesidad de un marco que vaya más allá de la confrontación, promoviendo la acomodación y una transformación social más amplia.

Huma Haider

Julio 2024

This briefing note identifies four areas that justify greater attention to the fundamental rights of natural persons, and convergence in the human rights and crime agendas: (1) (Organised) crimes that amount to human rights violations (2) Violation of rights due to lack of remedies for crimes committed by OCGs (3) Violations of human rights committed in the context of preventing and combating OC (4) Lack of accountability for human rights violations by OCGs

Ana Paula Oliveira

April 2024

This brief brings together key lessons emerging from GI-TOC’s research on the smuggling of migrants (SOM) between 2015-23. The research emphasises: (1) The need to provide sufficient opportunities for legal migration (2) The importance of timing for enforcement-led responses (3) The adaptive nature of the smuggling industry, with route changes being implemented swiftly in response to seemingly formidable obstacles to population movement.

Tuesday Reitano and Prem Mahadevan

April 2024

This briefing note summarises GI-TOC’s research and experiences in engaging with and supporting civil society responses to organised crime. This is provided in the context of the ongoing threats and shrinking space for civil society, and a need for policymakers and officials to understand civil society’s role, value and potential.

Ian Tennant and Prem Mahadevan

Febraury 2024

This briefing note explains why awareness raising or strategic communications campaigns that aim to inform the public about controlling or fighting so-called ‘social bads’ (e.g. corruption and organised crime). Despite aiming to change behaviours, these campaigns end up having little effect and, in some cases, may even backfire, making the situation worse.

Caryn Peiffer and Nic Cheeseman

Febraury 2024

This paper examines the practices used to evade sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, focusing on the import–export operations of Russia, Belarus, Georgia, and Kazakhstan. The research finds that sanctions have not cut supplies to Russia but have instead empowered informal trade networks and intermediaries. Georgia and Kazakhstan have indirectly benefited from the increased transiting trade; however, the impact on the shadow economy and traditional organised crime has been minimal because sanctions-busting is not illegal in these countries.

Dr Erica Marat & Dr Alexander Kupatadze

August 2023

Negotiating with organised crime groups and addressing criminal agendas in peace processes has become a reality in practice. There is, however, limited research on negotiating with criminal actors in peace processes. In seeking to address this gap, this paper reviews scholarly and practitioner literature across a wide range of research disciplines and demonstrates the importance of creating a framework for engaging with criminality and organised crime groups that extends beyond confrontation – allowing for accommodation and incorporating a wider societal change agenda through transformation.

Huma Haider

May 2023

State capture occurs when a small number of influential actors in the public and private sectors collude to change rules, regulations, legislation and institutions to further their own narrow interests at the expense of the broader public interest. In South Africa, there have been widespread allegations that several state-owned enterprises and other agencies were infiltrated by persons close to President Jacob Zuma and that they radically altered the processes and functions of these entities to serve the interests of a few individuals and companies linked to Zuma. This research examines how one institution, the South African Revenue Service (SARS), was captured and the detrimental impact of this on the capacity of SARS to detect, investigate and prevent tax and financial crimes. The literature on state capture generally does not provide detailed accounts of how specific institutions are captured or the impact on their capability and functioning; this research suggests that the further case studies may lead to improvements in our understanding of the scale of the impacts of state capture on institutions in the public sphere.

Zenobia Ismail & Robin Richards

March 2023

This briefing note summarises research that explores alternative asset recovery mechanisms that could help respond to the immediate policy goal surrounding Russian-linked sanctioned assets, and also contribute to strengthening the broader asset recovery framework in the UK for the longer term.

Maria Nizzero

March 2023

This scoping research looks at the potential for sensemaking for tackling challenges that arise when multi-agency teams are tasked with tackling the same problems – in this case, serious organised crime – but with unclear and potentially competing or conflicting mandates and incentives. We look at how sensemaking can help in better uncovering the ways in which different agencies approach the problem focusing on framing effects (e.g., assumptions, beliefs, desired consequences, expected risks and so on). We consider how this can lead to differences in consequences and potential for conflict and suggest an approach for improved multi-agency analysis and decision-making.

Chris Baber, Andrew Howes, James Knight & Heather Marquette

August 2022

Finding responses to illicit financial flows (IFFs) and preventing the extraction, movement and secretion of wealth from the licit global economy has become a growing policy preoccupation. The scale of IFFs and their continued growth has been linked to damaging consequences for governance and the building of peaceful, inclusive societies that achieve development for their citizens. This paper draws on research and evidence from by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) and beyond to explore how and why responses to IFFs are falling short.

Tuesday Reitano

June 2022

This research paper examines trends in Afghanistan’s opium and heroin trade and the Afghanistan-Pakistan drug smuggling nexus. It begins with a brief overview of a collapsing formal economy that lends itself to transnational organised crime, before a specific discussion about a drug trade that is deeply entrenched in the Afghan economy and its politics. It traces the Taliban’s historic stance towards narcotics and assesses the prospects of the Taliban’s 3 April 2022 edict prohibiting poppy cultivation and the use and trade of all types of narcotics across Afghanistan, which could have grave implications for a collapsing economy.

Shehryar Fazli

June 2022

This paper argues that political settlements analysis and an understanding of elite bargains need to incorporate a deeper and more systematic exploration of serious organised crime (SOC), since this affects critical elements related to the nature and quality of elite bargains and political settlements. In particular, the paper examines how SOC affects these issues – from the elites that constitute a bargain or settlement, to violence and stability, to ‘stateness’, or the extent to which a state is anchored in society, state capacity and political will, to legitimacy and electoral politics.

Alina Rocha Menocal

May 2022

Grand corruption is a transnational problem requiring transnational cooperation among anti-corruption actors. Investigative journalists increasingly cooperate across borders to investigate and expose corruption with great success. Our research seeks to understand how investigative journalists have overcome difficulties and to assess the contribution that they make, alongside that of other actors such as law enforcement, to global collective efforts to tackle grand corruption and illicit financial flows. We explore these questions through interviews with investigative journalists who have participated in transnational networks in Latin America, the Caribbean and the Balkans.

Elizabeth Dávid-Barrett & Slobodan Tomić

May 2022

This paper looks at targeted assassinations through the lens of illicit market violence in Afghanistan. It explores its potential as a key proxy to project current and future trends of other illicit and criminal market development in the country. The paper suggests a framework for further research to examine the evolution of illicit markets in Afghanistan by using a methodologically sound proxy indicator of such violence.

Ana Paula Oliveira

May 2022