Organised crime as irregular warfare: a framework for assessment and strategic response
Project Live
PROJECT TEAM
Dr David H. Ucko
College of International Security Affairs, National Defense University
Contact: David.Ucko@gmail.com
David H. Ucko, Ph.D., is professor and department chair at the College of International Security Affairs (CISA) of the National Defense University, Washington DC. He oversees the delivery of CISA’s Irregular Warfare area of concentration and the international deployment of its mobile education teams to conduct education and capacity building in irregular warfare. Dr. Ucko has published extensively on counterinsurgency, war-to-peace transition, civil wars, and military intervention. Most recently, he authored The Insurgent's Dilemma: A Struggle to Prevail (Hurst / Oxford University Press, 2022) and, with Thomas A. Marks, Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action, 2nd ed. (NDU Press, 2022).
Dr Thomas A. Marks
College of International Security Affairs, National Defense University
Contact: Tamarks@aol.com
Thomas A. Marks assumed his present rank and position in 2016 after 12 years as the founding Chair of the War and Conflict Studies Department, as well as Professor of Terrorism, positions he was asked to occupy following 9/11 due to his extensive academic and field experience with irregular warfare. Dr. Marks previously served as the Oppenheimer Chair of Warfighting Strategy at the Marine Corps University (Quantico) and as Adjunct Professor at the Air Force Special Operations School (AFSOS) and the intelligence community’s Sherman Kent School. He has authored hundreds of publications, including (most recently) People’s War: Variants and Responses (2018) and Perspectives on the American Way of War: The U.S. Experience in Irregular Combat (2019).
PROJECT SUMMARY
This project applies lessons from irregular warfare to countering organised crime. Irregular warfare is often defined as a violent competition over legitimacy, and it subsumes the problems of terrorism, insurgency, and political instability. Axes of convergence emerge, as state efforts to counter both insurgency and organised crime have been stymied by 1) definitional problem related to the term, oftentimes cloaking political divergences; 2) a rush to address the scourge without acknowledging its social and political context; and, therefore, 3) unquestioned pursuit of strategies that miss the point, whose progress is difficult to measure, or which are counter-productive.
Phase 1 of this research project established the commonalities between organised crime and irregular warfare: their shared nature and the pitfalls relating to response. On this basis, Phase 2 presents a Framework for Analysis and Action originally designed for irregular warfare but adapted here to the context of organised crime. This framework finds its origins and is being actively used within the US National Defense University’s College of International Security Affairs to teach the art of strategy. The Framework consists of two “parts”: the Strategic Estimate (which maps the problem, explores its drivers, frames, and strategies, and critiques the current response) and the Course of Action (which uses the Estimate to design an appropriate strategy, complete with a theory of success, phasing, assumptions, and metrics). While the framework is tailored to counter a threat actor or behavior, it positions these within their indispensable social, political, and informational contexts. In other words, it operates at the strategic level.
In adapting this framework for organised crime, the intent is to equip policymakers with a usable toolkit to respond strategically to related problems. This entails analytically placing organised crime within its indispensable context and educating practitioners on strategic planning methodologies to craft a tailored response. In a third phase of this project, the modified framework will be tested through application to key cases. This phase will not just bring a proof of concept but also produce policy-relevant analysis on how to assess and respond to the challenge of organised crime in context.
PUBLICATIONS
-
Organised crime as irregular warfare: strategic lessons for assessment and response (SOC ACE Research Paper 4)
A framework for countering organised crime: strategy, planning and the lessons of irregular warfare (SOC ACE Research Paper 19)
-
Organised Crime as Irregular Warfare: A Call for Strategic Competence (SOC ACE Briefing Note 10)
-
Organized Crime as Irregular Warfare Strategic Lessons for Assessment and Response, PRISM Vol. 10, No. 3, David H. Ucko and Thomas A. Marks, 7 September 2023.
-
Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action, 2nd ed. David H. Ucko and Thomas A. Marks. Washington DC: National Defense University Press, 2022