The project evaluates the role of Global Trade Hubs (GTH) along the maritime Silk Road in facilitating illicit activities, particularly smuggling, leveraging proven methods based on mirror trade statistics. By comparing these findings with existing assessments of illicit activities and flows, the project aims to provide insights into the potential risks associated with GTH involvement in illicit financial flows (IFFs).

This project applies lessons from irregular warfare to countering organized crime. Irregular warfare is often defined as a violent competition over legitimacy, and it subsumes the problems of terrorism, insurgency, and political instability. Phase 1 of this research project established the commonalities between organized crime and irregular warfare: their shared nature and the pitfalls relating to response. On this basis, Phase 2 presents a Framework for Analysis and Action originally designed for irregular warfare but adapted here to the context of organized crime. The Framework consists of two “parts”: the Strategic Estimate (which maps the problem, explores its drivers, frames, and strategies, and critiques the current response) and the Course of Action (which uses the Estimate to design an appropriate strategy, complete with a theory of success, phasing, assumptions, and metrics). In a third phase of this project, the modified framework will be tested through application to key cases.