How Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine Displaced Drug Trafficking Routes in Europe and Central Asia

GeorgiaRussiaUkraineKyrgyzstanKazakhstanMoldovaArmeniaResearch PaperBriefing Note

16 Apr

Written By Richard Fern

April 2026

Briefing Note 52

Dr Alexander Kupatadze (KCL)

Prof. Erica Marat (NDU)

SOC ACE project: Exploring the Consequences of Organised Crime and Illegal Trade Displacement on Eurasia

PUBLICATION SUMMARY

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has significantly reconfigured organised crime across Ukraine and neighbouring regions. Rather than simply disrupting illicit networks, the war and resulting sanctions have displaced and reshaped them. The most visible changes have occurred in the drugs market. Synthetic drug production has increasingly relocated to Kazakhstan, while trafficking routes for heroin and cocaine have shifted towards Belarus, Central Asia and the Balkans.

Pre-existing transnational criminal networks linking Europe and Asia have adapted quickly, exploiting sanctions evasion routes and weak governance environments in surrounding states. Kazakhstan has emerged as a major hub for synthetic drug production, facilitated by its vast territory, the relocation of Russian businesses, and collaboration between Russian and local criminal networks.

Similar displacement effects are visible in the South Caucasus, where the number of drug trafficking cases involving Russian and Ukrainian citizens has increased. Meanwhile, within Ukraine, the war has intensified domestic synthetic drug production and altered trafficking routes, demonstrating how conflict reshapes illicit economies rather than eliminating them.

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