SOC ACE Newsletter: December 2023

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SOC ACE Newsletter: December 2023 Last month, we shared research on organised crime (OC) and security sector reform, militarised approaches to OC, gold mining in Afghanistan, and the impact of its drug trade on neighbouring countries. Get up to date with our November newsletter now! We hope that your start to 2024 is going well. With the new year, we bring fresh research to address the challenges we face in addressing organised crime, illicit finance, kleptocracy and corruption. In this month’s newsletter, you’ll find news on: The impact of the Taliban's return on Afghanistan's opium trade in Helmand and Nangarhar provinces  Analysing the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime in borderland and frontier regions in Afghanistan, Myanmar and Colombia Illicit financial flows in East and Southern Africa and the Mekong  SOC-related sanctions and political will Building new SOC metrics for improved accountability in Medellín, Colombia Testing a new framework on organised crime as irregular warfare The consequences of organised crime and illegal trade displacement on Eurasia as a result of Russia’s war against Ukraine, including Kazakhstan, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine itself Each month, we’ll be showcasing our latest research, news & events. Click on the subscribe button to receive our newsletter. Subscribe New SOC ACE Research Assessing the effectiveness of sanctions as a tool to disrupt serious organised crime Cathy Haenlein at RUSI heads a research team in the second phase of her targeted sanctions and SOC project, focusing on political will. This phase examines factors influencing political will to support SOC-related sanctions, such as alignment with domestic and foreign policy goals, geopolitical considerations, targeting strategy, domestic capacity, and clarity on ‘sanctions’ objectives. The study analyses these dynamics in both sanction-sending states/multilaterals and in the home states of individuals targeted by SOC-related sanctions. Read more. Developing government information and accountability systems for combating serious organized crime: Medellín demonstration project Professor Chris Blattman is in the second phase of developing government information and accountability systems for combatting SOC in Colombia. With SOC ACE funding, he's building on findings from phase one to demonstrate the feasibility of collecting a wide range of metrics on SOC and establishing an annual cycle of metrics measurement and monitoring in Medellin. Findings in this phase will inform the design of anti-extortion interventions and form a baseline experimental evaluation of such interventions. Read more. Organised crime as irregular warfare: a framework for assessment and strategic response This month, Dr David Ucko and Dr Thomas Marks from the National Defense University are advancing their research on applying their analytical framework for irregular warfare to SOC issues. In the project's second phase, they're exploring ways to test the framework with policy makers and practitioners on SOC issues, enabling further iteration of the framework’s utility. Read more. Exploring the Consequences of Organised Crime and Illegal Trade Displacement on Eurasia Dr Alexander Kupatadze (KCL) and Dr Erica Marat (NDU) are in the second phase of their project, building on their findings from “Under the radar: How Russia outmanoeuvres Western sanctions with help from its neighbours.” They're now investigating the intricacies of crime displacement, changes in organised crime, and new forms of criminal activity resulting from Russia’s war against Ukraine, in neighbouring Kazakhstan, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine itself. The research also explores the diverse effects of sanctions, scrutinising the impact on elite bargains and the state-crime nexus in these focal countries. Read more. SOC ACE Updates Last month Dr David H. Ucko & Dr Thomas A. Marks came to London to meet with policy teams working on organised crime and irregular warfare in order to share their new framework and to explore potential areas for future collaboration. Matthew Redhead (RUSI) met with policy teams to present a mid-point briefing on his research examining state threats, with a focus on current significance of state threats, definitions, counter measures and responses. GI-TOCs Felipe Botero Escobar and his team, presented initial findings from their research on Colombia’s Total Peace policy to local government in Medellín. The project assesses policy implementation at local and national levels, identifying urgent organised crime-related issues in the city. The team are using findings from their research to enhancing local governments capabilities for addressing these issues to ensure security in the Medellín region. Dr Tena Prelec (University of Rijeka) joined a discussion on The Global Anti-Corruption Podcast ‘KickBack, to discuss “Professional enablers and transnational corruption: How can standards be raised”. Discussants included Professor Liz Dávid-Barrett (Centre for the Study of Corruption), Professor Robert Barrington (Centre for the Study of Corruption), and Guy Beringer KC (Hon) (Chair of the Taskforce on Business Ethics and the Legal Profession) SOC ACE were honoured to be a partner in RUSI’s inaugural Serious and Organised Crime Conference 2023, organised by RUSI’s Organised Crime & Policing Group along with the National Crime Agency. Professor Heather Marquette (University of Birmingham) joined a panel to discuss "Collaborative Approaches in SOC Case Studies and Best Practices". Other panel members included Dr Rajan Basra (Kings College London), Dr Phininder Balaghan (QinetiQ) and Dr Bill Merrill (National Crime Agency). There were also contributions from SOC ACE researchers from RUSI, including Cathy Haenlein, Dr Liam O’Shea and Matthew Redhead.  Before you get stuck into this months’ latest publications, see here for a list of SOC ACE research from 2023. Latest SOC ACE Publications Illicit Financial Flows in the Mekong Kristina Amerhauser (GI-TOC) This paper is part of a comparative research phase that tests and applies the ‘IFFs pyramid’ (Reitano, 2022), in the context of the Mekong region. The paper provides an overview of financial, trade and informal flows – the three dominant means by which IFFs are enabled, moved and held according to the ‘IFFs pyramid’ – and discusses how IFFs manifest across the Mekong. Read more. Addressing Illicit Financial Flows in East and Southern Africa Michael McLaggan (GI-TOC) In this phase of the SOC ACE project “Unlocking the black box of political will on IFFs: going beyond technical responses”, the research analyses whether the ‘IFFs pyramid’ proposed by the GI-TOC (Reitano, 2022) is applicable to and useful for researchers seeking to understanding illicit financial flows in various settings around the world but especially in regions where greater levels of informality exists, such as East and southern Africa. Read more. Coercive Brokerage: The Paramilitary-Organized Crime Nexus in Borderlands and Frontiers Working Paper I Dr Patrick Meehan & Dr Jonathan Goodhand (SOAS) This paper is the first of a three-part series exploring the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime. It advances a conceptual framework for analysing the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime in borderland and frontier regions. Read more. Coercive Brokerage: Paramilitaries, Illicit Economies and Organised Crime in the Frontiers of Afghanistan, Colombia and Myanmar - Working Paper II Dr Patrick Meehan & Dr Jonathan Goodhand (SOAS); Camilo Acero (LSE) & Jan Koehler (Independent) This paper is the second of a three-part series exploring the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime. It examines the nexus in frontier regions, through detailed case study analysis of the phenomena in the borderlands of Afghanistan, Myanmar and Colombia. Read more. Opioid Market Trends in Afghanistan: Poppy Cultivation, Policy and Practice Under the New Regime Prem Mahadevan, Maria Khoruk, Alla Mohammad Mohmandzai & Ruggero Scaturro (GI-TOC) This research paper explores the impact of the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 on the local opium trade and the diverse actors entangled in the country's drug economy. It focusses on the period surrounding the announcement of the Taliban's opium ban in Helmand and Nangarhar provinces, two significant opium-producing regions. Read more. Other related news RUSI’s Maria Nizzero recently published emerging insights onExploring Mechanisms for the Return of Proceeds of Corruption; and also joined a panel on “Righting the Wrong: Tools for Asset Recovery in Global Corruption Cases”. The panel was organised by the Basel Institute on Governance at the Conference of State Parties to the UNCAC in Atlanta, and discussed the use of several tools (including sanctions) in asset recovery cases. Did you enjoy our newsletter? Share it with your network. Share FOLLOW SOC ACE