SOC ACE Research 2023
As SOC ACE research for this year commences, here we revisit our publications from 2023. The insights gained from our research remain highly relevant for policymakers confronting the escalating complexities of addressing organised crime (OC).
2023 SOC ACE Publications
Illicit Finance, Economic Crime, State Capture and Kleptocracy - Euroasia & South Africa
How to seize a billion: exploring mechanisms to recover the proceeds of kleptocracy, Maria Nizzero (RUSI). This paper explores alternative asset recovery mechanisms that could help respond to the immediate policy goal surrounding Russian-linked sanctioned assets and uses the example of kleptocratic assets to set out the current limitations of UK civil recovery mechanisms.
New dynamics in illicit finance and Russian foreign policy, Dr David Lewis (University of Exeter). This paper provides an analytical overview of how Russian actors and proxies are using illicit financial flows (IFF) to support Russian foreign policy goals.
Under the Radar: How Russia Outmanoeuvres Western Sanctions with Help from its Neighbours, Dr Erica Marat (NDU), Dr Alexander Kupatadze (KCL). This paper examines the practices used to evade sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, focusing on the import–export operations of Russia, Belarus, Georgia, and Kazakhstan.
Economic Crime and Illicit Finance in Russia’s Occupation Regime in Ukraine, Dr David Lewis (University of Exeter). This paper details Russia's illicit economic activity in the occupied territories in Ukraine, and calls for more international attention to this aspect of Russia's invasion.
Illuminating the Role of Third-Country Jurisdictions in Sanctions Evasion and Avoidance (SEA), Dr Liam O’Shea, Gonzalo Saiz & Alexia Anna Hack (RUSI); and Olivia Allison (Independent). The report examines thirteen third countries (Armenia, Cyprus, Czechia, Georgia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malta, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, Spain, Türkiye and the UAE), involved in SEA relating to sanctions imposed on Russia since its invasion of Ukraine.
Information manipulation and organised crime: examining the nexus, Dr Tena Prelec (University of Oxford). This paper draws from Nicholas Barnes' 'political criminality' concept, to investigate how OC crime groups manipulate information in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, Russia, Moldova (Transnistria), and Albania.
State capture and serious organised crime in South Africa: a case study of the South African Revenue Service (2001-21), Zenobia Ismail (Uinveristy of Birmingham) and Robin Richards (Independent). This paper details the impact of state capture on the capacity of SARS to detect, investigate and prevent tax and financial crime, highlighting the unintended consequences of state capture on institutions.
Organised crime and illicit economies under a new Taliban-led government
Armed conflict and organised crime: the case of Afghanistan, Professor Annette Idler & Frederik Florenz (University of Oxford); Ajmal Burhanzoi, (University of Toronto) and Dr John Collins, Marcena Hunter & Antônio Sampaio (GI-TOC). This paper gives an account of the existing literature on Afghanistan’s crime–conflict nexus, highlighting key insights from the literatire.
A New Exodus: Migrant smuggling from Afghanistan after the return of the Taliban, Prem Mahadevan, Maria Khoruk & Alla Mohamad Mohmandzaï (GI-TOC). This paper elucidates the enduring presence of an illicit economy crucial not only for Afghanistan but also for the broader region and the Global North
The impact of Afghanistan’s drug trade on its neighbours: the case of Pakistan, Iran and Tajikistan, Shehryar Fazli (GI-TOC). This project addresses the complex issue of drug production in Afghanistan, which continues to fuel regional and global narcotics trade, extending its focus to the Golden Crescent region, where Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran intersect, serving as a prominent drug smuggling hub.
Lost in Transition: Gold Mining and the Political Economy of Takhar, Afghanistan, Marcena Hunter & Alastair MacBeath (GI-TOC). This paper examines the emerging dynamics, risks and opportunities within Afghanistan from the perspective of the gold mining industry in the north-eastern province of Takhar, under the new Taliban-led government.
Organised crime and peace processes
Organised crime groups, criminal agendas, violence and conflict: implications for engagement, negotiations and peace processes, Huma Haider (Independent). This review demonstrates the importance of creating a framework for engaging with criminality and organised crime groups that extends beyond confrontation – allowing for accommodation and incorporating a wider societal change agenda through transformation.
Organised crime approaches and frameworks
A Framework for countering organised crime: strategy, planning and the lessons of Irregular Warfare, Dr David Ucko & Dr Thomas Marks (NDU). This paper advances the Framework of Analysis and Action – designed for irregular warfare challenges, to aid assessment of, as well as response to, organised crime.
Militarised Approaches to Serious and Organised Crime: Approaches and Policy Implications, Luke Kelly (University of Manchester). This annotated bibliography includes research and evidence on militarised approaches to combating serious and organised crime (SOC) in various contexts.