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New research projects on organised crime and state-sponsored assassinations, mapping Russian threat actors’ business networks, the politics of ports for countering organised crime and a new illicit trade ‘red-flag’ taxonomy.
Upcoming webinars on women and illicit finance in Russia’s occupation of Ukraine (19 February) and on corruption and welfare reform in Pakistan (18 March).
SOC ACE research featured in UK parliamentary report on economic crime and in award-winning podcast on youth and gangs.
Plus new blogs, podcasts, event reports and much more…
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| | Each month, we’ll be showcasing our latest research, news & events. Click on the subscribe button to receive our newsletter. |
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SOC ACE research cited in major parliamentary report on economic crime |
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Bangkok workshop on borderlands, illicit economies and uneven development |
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| In January, the team working on the project The centrality of the margins: Borderlands, illicit economies and uneven development, participated in two policy engagement events in Thailand hosted by the British Embassy in Bangkok. Dr Xu Peng (SOAS) presented the findings and policy implications of their research on scam centres, as part of a panel on the scam industry in Southeast Asia, to an audience of embassies whose countries have been affected by this phenomenon. Professor Jonathan Goodhand (SOAS), Dr Patrick Meehan (Manchester) Danseng Lawn (Kachinland Resource Centre) and Dr Peng also organised and participated in a one-day workshop with policymakers that focused on three case studies from the research: scam centres, rare earth minerals, and drugs. It was attended by officials from FCDO, UNODC, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime, The Asia Foundation, and local NGOs working on transnational organised crime, peacebuilding and development in the Southeast and East Asia region. |
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| | SOC ACE sanctions research at SIFMANet Summit in Brussels
Cathy Haenlein’s (RUSI) team working on Targeted Sanctions and SOC: The Role of Political Will, participated in the Sanctions and Illicit Finance Monitoring and Analysis Network (SIFMANet) Summit convened by RUSI’s Centre for Finance and ,Security (CFS) on 4 December 2026 in Brussels. They shared current insights from the project during a session on ‘Targeting Transnational Crime: Expanding the EU Sanctions Toolbox’, which aimed to assess the EU’s growing use of thematic regimes against organised crime, cybercrime and irregular migration, considering where they are effective, where gaps remain, and how to sharpen them against fast-evolving criminal networks. Research team members Elijah Glantz (RUSI) and Dr Anton Moiseienko (Australia National University) also joined Sanctions SOS’s Alan Bolton and Mathilde Gerritsma on 10 February for a webinar examining how sanctions can be used to disrupt serious organised crime. |
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| | Cleaning up international trade
Dr Mayya Konovalova (Birmingham) has written about cleaning up international trade, in the International Compliance Association’s inCOMPLIANCE magazine. Drawing on her research as part of the SOC ACE project on Smuggling along the New Silk Road: The role of global trade hubs, she looks at how criminal networks increasingly exploit global trade through nested offenses such as trade-based money laundering, counterfeiting, smuggling and tax evasion. The article urges intelligence-led, cross-sector compliance approaches to detect overlapping criminal activities and close systemic enforcement gaps. |
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| | New infrastructure and hidden trade along the new Silk Road Dr Arisyi F. Raz (University of Indonesia) presented SOC ACE research examining how China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) influences trade-related fraud in participating countries at the 20th East Asian Economic Association International Convention in Manila and at the 10th Asia-Pacific Conference on Economic & Finance in Singapore. His ongoing research, alongside Dr Sami Bensassi (Birmingham) and Dr Yangjun Han (Birmingham) finds so far that while foreign direct investment can sometimes enable capital flight or money laundering in nations with weak institutions, the opposite effect is seen for BRI countries. Using trade data from 2013-2019, the authors show that BRI-related investment encouraged host countries to strengthen institutional quality and border controls. As a result, trade-related fraud decreased by an estimated 23%, suggesting that the BRI can act as a catalyst for improved governance and reduced illicit financial flows. Results from the research project will be available at Smuggling along the New Silk Road: The role of global trade hubs. |
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| | Award winning podcast featuring research on youth and gangs in Medellín |
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Stories of Impact, a podcast featuring inspiring stories connecting science, research and spirituality, have won the 2025 dotCOMM Gold Award for their episode “From Gangs to Growth”, which they describe as a “powerful look at the fight for the future of Medellín’s youth”. The episode features Dr Santiago Tobón (Universidad EAFIT) talking about his work with colleagues on violence reduction, youth opportunities, and the economics of organised crime. The research, which is part-funded by SOC ACE, continues to shape policy debates on reducing gang violence and strengthening community resilience.
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| | Sharing learning about the new HMRC Informer and Whistleblower Programme Eliza Lockhart (RUSI) joined Anthony Rogers (HMRC), attorney Dean Zerbe (TWAG), and Stephen M Kohn (NWC) for a webinar exploring the UK’s strengthened HMRC Informer and Whistleblower programmes, sponsored by the National Whistleblower Centre and International Whistleblower Advocates. Find out more about Eliza’s SOC ACE research on the role of financial rewards for whistleblowers in the fight against economic crime here. |
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Developing a red flag taxonomy: A proof of concept for illicit trade
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| | A new project led by Dr Alexander Kupatadze (Kings College London) tests the feasibility and analytical value of a cross-domain ‘red-flag’ taxonomy through a small comparative pilot across three areas of transnational crime: illegally traded commodities, human trafficking, and drugs. The project explores whether red-flag detection methods must remain commodity-specific or whether shared criminal methodologies, such as mis-invoicing, network layering, or the use of front companies, can be identified across distinct illicit markets. The project will further explore innovative ways to use publicly available data to identify illicit practices, exploring how open-source information can complement restricted law-enforcement and corporate datasets in revealing patterns of illegal trade. You can visit the project webpage here. |
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| | Mapping Russian threat actors’ business networks |
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| Led by Olivia Allison (SECTA) and Mike Lewis (SECTA), this new project maps corporate, financial and legal structures linked to individuals affiliated with Russian threat actors. The project aims to contribute to academic and policy understanding of business networks used by Russian threat actors and identify potential gaps in private sector due diligence and investment screening, and sanctions policy. In addition, by conducting network analysis on the data the project’s findings will inform understanding of sectors and jurisdictions used by hostile capital networks for business and/or influence operations, highlighting potential changes to these patterns since 2022. You can visit the project webpage here. |
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| | Port politics: A service characteristics approach to countering organised crime |
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| | This new project, led by Cathy Haenlein (RUSI), Elijah Glantz (RUSI), Dr Anna Sergi (Bologna) and Mark Williams (RUSI), looks at characteristics intrinsic to port services and infrastructure that present political and practical constraints to efforts seeking to strengthen the resilience of seaports to criminal activity. Through the service characteristic approach, the project will consider the need to work with the political dynamics generated around port service provision - as part of a structured broader approach to understanding the relationship between technical and political features in key cases. It will examine the political interests, incentives and institutions involved in seaport functioning, and political and practical constraints to effective action to disrupt organised criminal activity. This will include analysis of how territoriality, political commitment and other factors support to undermine efforts to counter criminal and corrupt activity. The project will identify clusters of characteristics that may influence the interests, incentives and accountability of key stakeholders in seaport service provision, investigating their interplays through a number of case studies. In doing so the project will provide policymakers with novel insights to inform strategic decision making at a time of heightened concern over the scale of criminal infiltration of port infrastructure. You can visit the project webpage here. |
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Criminal hands, state ends: State-sponsored assassinations using organised crime |
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| Led by Dr Jessica Davies (Insight Threat Intelligence), this project will explore the relationship between governments and criminal organisations in the context of state-sponsored assassinations. States increasingly outsource assassinations to organised crime networks, using them as deniable instruments of statecraft, allowing governments to externalise operational risk, obscure attribution, and circumvent legal or diplomatic constraints. Yet, policy and academic frameworks continue to treat assassinations as discrete security incidents rather than components of a broader system linking state direction, criminal facilitation, and financial enablement. By bringing together different strands of literature and evidence, the project aims to provide a more comprehensive analysis of states’ use of criminal organisations for state-sponsored assassinations by mapping who recruits whom, how assassins are financed and managed, what methods they deploy, why (and when) they choose criminals, and what measures, policy tools, and legal authorities have been adopted so far in addressing the challenges these issues pose. You can visit the project webpage here. |
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Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) and Mid-Level Commanders: Preventing the Recycling of Violence This project builds on earlier research on negotiating with criminal groups as part of Colombia’s Total Peace Policy, which identified an important research gap: the role that mid-level commanders play in shaping emerging criminal structures and forging connections between criminal groups and local armed forces or state institutions, thereby strengthening criminal governance. Their actions significantly influence the effectiveness of peace processes and negotiations, by either undermining or supporting successful reintegration into civilian life. This new phase of research aims to deepen understanding of mid-level commander profiles and the incentives that lead them to either negotiate and remain in civilian life or return to criminal activity. The goal is to clarify how these actors can act as either spoilers or as key facilitators of DDR programmes, particularly given the current lack of differentiated approaches within existing DDR practice. The team is led by Felipe Botero (GI-TOC), and includes Andrés Aponte (GI-TOC), Lina María Asprilla (GI-TOC), Juanita Durán (Laboratorio de Justicia y Política Criminal), Kyle Johnson (Fundación CORE), and Angela Olaya (Fundación CORE). You can visit the project web-page here. |
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Measuring and Tackling Organised Crime in Medellín and Cali, Colombia
This project, led by Professor Christopher Blattman (Chicago) and Professor Santiago Tobón (Universidad EAFIT), tackles a critical gap in the understanding and response to organised crime in Medellín and Cali.
Criminal groups have become entrenched in these two cities, exerting territorial control, influencing daily life, and undermining public institutions. Despite their widespread impact, these dynamics remain under-measured and poorly addressed by policy. Building on previous research, the project focuses on designing and testing evidence-based interventions, with strategies like focused deterrence, which combines targeted law enforcement with community support and engagement, at the centre. Building on established partnerships, the project aims to strengthen institutional capacity, inform decision-making, and foster a multi-sector network committed to tackling organised crime through data-driven, context-sensitive strategies. You can visit the project webpage here.
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SOC ACE Webinar Women and Illicit Finance in Russia’s Occupation of Ukraine Thursday 19 February 2026 | 14:00–15:00 (GMT) Speakers: Dr Orly Stern and Olivia Allison (Exeter/RUSI) Chair: Prof Heather Marquette (Birmingham) Register here or via the QR Code. |
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Dr Orly Stern and Olivia Allison will lead a webinar examining the gendered dynamics of illicit finance in Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territories. Drawing on their recent SOC ACE research, the webinar will explore how women both participate in, and are disproportionately harmed by, the illicit financial flows that underpin the occupation economy. Bringing together open-source material, interviews and data from the original Russian Illicit Finance in Occupation (RIFO) database, they will outline a more nuanced and context sensitive framework for understanding women’s roles distinguishing between enablers of illicit systems and those navigating survival in coercive environments.
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SOC ACE Webinar
Intersections of Corruption and Welfare in Pakistan: Power, Access and Inequality
Wednesday 18 March 2026 | 10:00–11:00 (GMT) Speakers: Dr Zahid Mumtaz and Dr Caryn Peiffer Chair: Prof Heather Marquette (Birmingham) Register here or via the QR code. |
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Dr Zahid Mumtaz (Australian National University) and Dr Caryn Peiffer (Bristol) will discuss their research examining the complex relationship between corruption and informal welfare regimes in Pakistan. They will explore the dual role of corruption in simultaneously undermining formal welfare provision while serving as a survival mechanism for those excluded from official support. The session will outline a nuanced, path‑dependent framework for understanding, highlighting the political and social factors, and distinguishing between corruption that entrenches inequality and corruption that compensates for systemic failures. |
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| | | | | SOAS ACE and the Institute for New Economic Thinking are convening a two-day conference in London, bringing together early career researchers, senior academics, policymakers, and civil society organisations to discuss cutting edge evidence on corruption and illicit economies. The event will bring participants together in a focused, discussion-led format centred on research exchange, mentorship, and network building. Timed to coincide with the UK Illicit Finance Summit 2026, offering opportunities to connect emerging research with live policy debates. A call for papers is coming soon, and you can register your interest now here.
Cathy Haenlein (RUSI) is cited in The Observer - The likely impact of Maduro’s seizure on global cocaine trade: none - analysing the global implications of President Maduro’s recent territorial seizure. She also contributed to RUSI’s group blog, The wider implications of US action in Venezuela: RUSI experts react, where she examines how shifting U.S. policy under President Trump may influence regional security, criminal economies, and the strategic behaviour of state and non-state actors.
Dr Tena Prelec (Rijeka) has contributed to a new paper on Foreign influence and challenges: Corrosive capital and disinformation in the Western Balkans and associated trio as part of the EU-funded GEO-POWER-EU project, examining how foreign influence shapes political, economic, and governance dynamics across Europe.
Dr Jessica Davis (Insight Treat Intelligence) has an op-ed in Canada’s Globe and Mail arguing that, as Canada prepares to go it alone on critical issues, a financial crime agency is key (paywall). She has also published The Axis of Illicit Finance: Iran’s Crypto Strategy Explained, as the start of an eight-part series examining how Iran has increasingly relied on cryptocurrency to circumvent international sanctions.
In RUSI’s Suspicious Transaction Report podcast, Creating an AML system that is fit for purpose, Tom Keatinge (RUSI) and Dr Anton Moiseienko (ANU) lead a deep examination of how global anti-money laundering systems must be redesigned around incentives rather than compliance checklists, drawing on Moiseienko’s book, Doing Business with Criminals.
Eliza Lockhart (RUSI) and Matthew Redhead (RUSI) have contributed to the new Hybrid CoE/RUSI Handbook, analysing how Russia employs non-state actors across economic, financial, informational, and paramilitary domains.
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| | | | If you’ve used any of SOC ACE’s research to inform policy and/or practice, let us know by sending us an email at:
impact-socace@contacts.bham.ac.uk |
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