Developing a red-flag taxonomy: A proof of concept for illicit trade
Project Live
PROJECT TEAM
Dr Alexander Kupatadze
Independent Researcher
Contact: Alexander.kupatadze@kcl.ac.uk
Dr Alexander Kupatadze is Associate Professor at King’s College London. Prior to joining King’s College Dr Kupatadze taught at the School of International Relations, St Andrews University. He held the postdoctoral positions at George Washington University (2010-11), Oxford University (2012-13) and Princeton University (2013-14). His research specialisation is organised crime, corruption, public sector reform, informal politics and crime-terror nexus. His regional expertise is post-Soviet Eurasia. His work has appeared in Journal of Democracy, Theoretical Criminology, Nonproliferation Review, British Journal of Political Science and other leading journals. His research has been funded by European Union, British Academy and Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation.
PROJECT SUMMARY
This proof-of-concept project tests the feasibility and analytical value of a cross-domain Red-Flag Taxonomy through a small comparative pilot across three areas of transnational crime: illegally traded legal commodities (such as tobacco and pharmaceuticals), human trafficking, and drugs. The project explores whether red-flag detection methods must remain commodity-specific or whether shared criminal methodologies, such as mis-invoicing, network layering, or the use of front companies -can be identified across distinct illicit markets. In other words, can the data analysis that helps identify cocaine shipments also capture patterns of tobacco smuggling or human trafficking and vice-versa, and how does this vary across sectors and jurisdictions? The project will further explore innovative ways to use publicly available data to identify illicit practices, showing how open-source information can complement restricted law-enforcement and corporate datasets in revealing patterns of illegal trade.
The pilot aims to look at seven analytical dimensions, behavioural, transactional, financial, legal/ownership, geographic, procedural/regulatory, and social/contextual -to map red-flag indicators within and across these three domains. Through an overview of sector-specific and proxy datasets, targeted expert interviews, and one practitioner validation workshop, the research will assess which analytical dimensions and data types show potential for identifying common patterns across commodities and crime types and which should remain context-specific; and whether and how legal, technological, or ethical constraints limit interoperability.
Outputs will include a prototype red-flag matrix tested across the three domains, a SOC-ACE working paper summarising findings and methodological lessons, and a short practitioner brief highlighting implications for both commodity-focused and cross-cutting analytical design. The project will test, on a small scale, whether a structured taxonomy of red-flag indicators can generate comparable insights across different illicit markets.
PUBLICATIONS
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