Velvet glove, iron fist: Understanding China’s use of state threats

September 2025

Synthesis Paper 3

Matthew Redhead, RUSI

SOC ACE project: Understanding State Threats


PUBLICATION SUMMARY

In Velvet glove, iron fist: Understanding China’s use of state threats, Matthew Redhead focuses on one of the emerging primary perpetrators of State Threats.

This, the third in SOC ACE’s Synthesis Paper series, provides an overview of the scale, scope and nature of China’s state threats, which include overt diplomatic bullying, economic coercion, military sabre-rattling, commercial espionage and harassment of critics, as well as information and cyber effects operations.

Matthew describes China as probably the only state capable of challenging the US across the full spectrum of economic power. He argues that this is a central intent for China, alongside regime survival and hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region – specifically in Taiwan.

The paper describes China as more cautious in its approach than other revisionist states, but emphasises the potential role of the Chinese diaspora, as well as its potential economic power through trade, financial investments, and international debt holdings. Matthew also highlights the potential of, and as yet unutilised, criminal networks such as the Triad.

Finally, Matthew observes that while significant and growing, China’s state threat activity could be much worse than it is currently. The relatively cautious and nuanced application of those threats presents Western powers with a distinct problem in calibrating their response. He recommends a bespoke and multi-stranded approach with increased resilience, improved threat mapping, and carefully targeted measures which are more assertive but do not provoke China. Matthew adds that, perhaps counter-intuitively, greater engagement and discussion may bear dividends.


RELATED PUBLICATIONS

Old Wine, New Bottles? The Challenge of State Threats

Matthew Redhead, (RUSI)

Information Manipulation and Organised Crime: Examining the nexus

Dr Tena Prelec, (University of Rijeka)

An absence of peace a rumour of war: The problem of defining state threats

Matthew Redhead

Exploring the threat of Chinese Professional Money Laundering Organisations (PMLO)

Kathryn Westmore (RUSI)

Next
Next

An absence of peace, a rumour of war: The problem of defining state threats