The hidden front: Russia's ongoing state threats campaign

September 2025

Synthesis Paper 4

Matthew Redhead, RUSI

SOC ACE project: Understanding State Threats

PUBLICATION SUMMARY

In, The hidden front: Russia's ongoing state threats campaign, Matthew Redhead focuses on one of the primary perpetrators of state threats.

This, the fourth in SOC ACE’s Synthesis Papers series, provides an overview of the scale, scope and nature of Russia’s state threats, showing them to be extensive and growing.

Matthew describes how Russia uses state operatives, private businesses and military companies, oligarchs, civil society and Russian diasporas, as well as serious organised crime networks, to pursue its strategic aims of protecting its regime, building its spheres of influence, and undermining Western resilience.

Cooperating with other revisionist states and courting friendly actors in the West, Russia shows no sign of ceasing its activities.

Matthew concludes with several observations for policymakers. First, such activity must be kept in perspective: while aggressive and reckless, its impacts are ambiguous. Second, the West must recognise that Russia’s worldview is fundamentally at odds with its own. Third, the West’s current response is inadequate, building resilience is important, but deterrence, disruption, retaliation and offence should also be considered. Fourth, this will require a flexible response, coordinated between the UK’s government departments and its allies.

Finally, Matthew cautions that the long-term ripple effects on international norms and domestic confidence could be greater than currently appreciated.

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