The logic of resistance: The ongoing state threats challenge from Iran

November 2025

Synthesis Paper 5

Matthew Redhead, RUSI

SOC ACE project: Understanding State Threats

PUBLICATION SUMMARY

Drawing on previous SOC ACE research, Matthew Redhead focuses on The logic of resistance: The ongoing state threats challenge from Iran - exploring the scale, scope and nature of Iranian state threats.

Over the past decade, the UK and other liberal democracies have faced a surge in state-linked hostile activities. Iran has emerged as a leading perpetrator, alongside Russia, China, and North Korea.

This synthesis paper describes how Iran’s theocratic regime, led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has consistently deployed both overt and covert tactics against foreign adversaries and exiled opposition groups. These have included harassment of shipping in the Persian Gulf, surveillance, kidnapping, assassination and terrorism.

Redhead shows how, over the past decade, Iran has escalated its use of lethal techniques, particularly targeting nationals of the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. It has also intensified sabotage efforts and cyberattacks on critical national infrastructure and commercial entities, extending its reach through online disinformation and electoral interference.

The IRGC plays a central role in coordinating Iran’s hostile activities, including partnerships with terrorist groups and militias within the “Axis of Resistance.” Iran also leverages non-state actors such as private cybersecurity firms and organised crime groups to expand and extend its operational capacity.

While Iran’s actions are partly driven by ideological and geopolitical ambitions, the regime’s core motive is survival. Its strategy of “forward defence” aims to project power and destabilise adversaries beyond its borders, as well as demonstrate its continued power and influence.

Despite recent setbacks - including Israeli and US military strikes in June 2025 and the decline of partners such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the al-Assad Syrian regime - Iran appears committed to an aggressive posture. Redhead says that rather than retreating, Iran is likely to double-down on covert operations in response to its perceived humiliation and continued international isolation.

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