New Briefing Note: ‘Old Wine, New Bottles? The challenge of state threats’

Over the past decade, Western countries have faced a rising tide of hostile actions perpetrated by state actors and their partners; many sit in the so-called grey zone between peace and war and use hybrid methods of attack. This body of activities has become known in Western policy circles by a variety of terms, such as “threats from state actors”, “hostile activity by states”, or “state threats” – the term currently used by the UK government. Much of the current discourse around state threats has been poorly and loosely defined, however, and has failed to ask basic questions such as why state threats are so important now.

Briefing Note 37 in the SOC ACE series summarises recent research by Matthew Redhead (RUSI) that addresses these and other concerns, looking to provide firmer definitional boundaries and explore the scale, scope and character of modern state threats within them. It argues that whilst current state threats look familiar, there is much that is new in their execution and operationalisation; from the combining of traditional intelligence tradecraft with new technologies to exploit new societal vulnerabilities, to the outsourcing of actions to non-state actors, and their use by “middle powers” as tools of statecraft. The research finds that state threats’ relative cheapness and deniability allow states to attempt to undermine, coerce and influence their opponents with limited risk of starting major wars, making them attractive tools for politically assertive states in a time of rapid geopolitical change. It concludes that although the impact of hostile actions on Western states has so far been mixed, they have the potential to become more damaging over time as societal resilience wears down, new technologies emerge, hostile actors’ risk tolerances increase and more states participate.

Find the new Briefing Note here and visit the project page to find podcasts, media coverage and much more. Also keep an eye out for SOC ACE’s new Synthesis Paper series, launching with 10 thematic state threats papers by Matthew, including on use of state threats in the Global South, Russia, China and information manipulation.