SOC ACE Newsletter: October 2023

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SOC ACE Newsletter: October 2023 Last month we launched our first ever SOC ACE newsletter. If you haven't already, we invite you to catch up on all the updates from our September Newsletter now! This month’s newsletter includes: Migrant smuggling in Afghanistan. Targeted violence and illicit economies in Afghanistan. Third country jurisdictions in sanctions evasion and avoidance (SEA) related to Russia's war against Ukraine. Information manipulation and organised crime with case studies from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Prigozhin and Wagner, Transnistria, the Kremlin's capture of the media and Albania. The consequences of organised crime and illegal trade displacement on Eurasia. Each month, we’ll be showcasing our latest research, news & events. Click on the subscribe button to receive our newsletter. Subscribe SOC ACE News ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize 2023 We're pleased to announce that researchers from SOC ACE and GI-ACE were runners-up in the Economic and Social Research Council’s Celebrating Impact Prize competition 2023, for their research on "Countering Kleptocracy". This collaboration between leading researchers at the University of Exeter, University of Oxford and Chatham House, who received additional funding from the ESRC, has informed policy on how the UK government is reforming its legal system and introducing anti-corruption sanctions, helping to counteract the UK’s vulnerability from kleptocracy that may present a threat to national security. In the video above, Professor John Heathershaw (University of Exeter/GI-ACE), Dr Tena Prelec (University of Oxford & University of Rijeka) and others introduce their research. Read their report “The UK’s Kleptocracy Problem”, and learn more about their impressive impact. New SOC ACE Research Project Exploring the consequences of Organised Crime and illegal trade displacement on Eurasia The second phase of Dr Alexander Kupatadze (KCL) and Dr Erica Marat’s (NDU) project on “Exploring the Consequences of Organised Crime and Illegal Trade Displacement on Eurasia” is now underway. This phase, building on findings of their recent “Under the radar: how Russia outmanoeuvres Western sanctions with help from its neighbours”, aims to unpack the intricacies of crime displacement, changes in organised crime, and new forms of criminal activity resulting from the Ukraine war, in neighbouring Kazakhstan, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan as well as in Ukraine itself. The research will continue to explore the varying effects of sanctions and scrutinise the possible impact on elite bargains and the state-crime nexus in these focal countries. Research findings will ultimately support policy makers in assessing which jurisdictions are at higher risk for sanctions-busting and trafficking of commodities and in identifying specific areas, such as free trade zones or specific boarder stretches, that may need close monitoring. SOC ACE Updates Professor David Lewis (University of Exeter) launched his latest report "Economic Crime and Illicit Finance in Russia’s Occupation Regime in Ukraine" in a virtual event hosted by the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at George Washington University. SOC ACE Director Professor Heather Marquette (University of Birmingham), alongside Dr John Collins (GI-TOC), Alastair MacBeath (GI-TOC) and Dr Arian Sharifi (Princeton University) took part in a panel discussion on "Monitoring the evolution of illicit economies in Afghanistan", as part of the Global Conference on Organised Crime, a virtual 24 hour conference bringing together organised crime experts from around the world. The panel explored what the new Taliban regime in Afghanistan means for illicit economies in the country, the region, and the global community more broadly, and how they may evolve in the future. Dr Tena Prelec (University of Rijeka) discussed her new research paper on 'Information manipulation and organised crime: examining the nexus' as part of a panel on "Information Warfare and the Criminalisation of Cyberspace" at a recent GI-TOC Security and Development Dialogue on "State Threats and Illicit Economies" Find more information on this event and previous Dialogues. Professor Heather Marquette (SOC ACE Director/University of Birmingham) and Professor Paul Heywood (GI-ACE Director/University of Nottingham) discussed ACE research on illicit finance at the recent FCDO Governance Advisors’ Professional Development Conference. Latest SOC ACE Publications New Exodus: Migrant smuggling from Afghanistan after the return of the Taliban Prem Mahadevan, Maria Khoruk, & Alla Mohamad Mohmandzaï (GI-TOC) Kabul's fall to the Taliban in August 2021 spurred the fourth wave of distress migration from Afghanistan in 50 years. This research uncovers common patterns in Afghan migration and the impact of the Taliban's return on human mobility...Read more Illuminating the role of third-country jurisdictions in sanctions evasion and avoidance (SEA) Dr Liam O’Shea (RUSI), Olivia Allison (Independent), Gonzalo Saiz & Alexia Anna Hack (RUSI) This research addresses the impact of sanctions evasion and avoidance (SEA) and third country involvement, highlighting where third countries are more likely to engage in SEA, for example where trade and commercial capacity is present...Read more Information manipulation and organised crime: examining the nexus Dr Tena Prelec, (University of Oxford/University of Rijeka) Whilst concerns about information manipulation increase globally, the role of organised crime groups in shaping information landscapes remains overlooked. This research investigates the complex connections between criminal actors and the state. The research has a strong focus on Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, Russia, Transnistria and Albania...Read more Illicit markets and violence in Afghanistan: Avenues for understanding the use of targeted violence and its implications in Afghan illicit economies Ana Paula de Carvalho Oliveira (GI-TOC) In 2021, Afghanistan saw a spike in violent crimes, including targeting civilians, particularly women human rights defenders and media workers. This research published in the Journal of Illicit Economies & Development explores the changing dynamics of conflict and crime, emphasising the shift to targeted violence. It suggests using illicit market violence as a key indicator to predict trends in other criminal markets...Read more Targeted sanctions and organised crime: Impact and lessons for future use Cathy Haenlein, Sasha Erskine, Elijah Glantz & Tom Keatinge (RUSI), As sanctions become more widespread, the need to apply them to organised criminal activity is growing. In the UK, where serious and organised crime is considered a national security threat, there's a case for introducing a sanctions regime specifically targeting this threat. The National Crime Agency has urged a legislative amendment to include serious and organised crime as grounds for sanctions use, and this project aims to explore and address that possibility....Read more Upcoming Events SOC ACE is proud to be a partner in RUSI’s inaugural Serious and Organised Crime Conference 2023. This flagship conference is organised by RUSI’s Organised Crime & Policing Group along with the National Crime Agency. Other partners include the University of Cambridge and CREST Advisory, while EY is a conference sponsor. Confirmed speakers include Graeme Biggar (Director General, NCA), Dan Jarvis MP (Shadow Minister for Security), Lord Evans of Weardale (former Director General of the British Security Service, Oliver Bullough (investigative journalist and author), and many more. Professor Heather Marquette will be on a panel discussing "Collaborating on SOC Case Studies and Best Practice" as well as other contributions from SOC ACE researchers from RUSI, including Cathy Haenlein, Dr Liam O’Shea and Matthew Redhead. To mark the NCA’s 10th anniversary, read the first in a 10-part series leading up to the conference on "A Boundless Threat: the Rise of Organised Crime in the UK" by Cathy Haenlein and Lord Evans. Monday, 4 December and Tuesday, 5 December 2023. Register here. Online roundtable on 'The Future of the FATF', Centre for Financial Crime & Security Studies, RUSI, Friday, 24 November 2023, 10:00-12:00 (UK). Invitation Only Event. Find out more about CFCS’s research, and read SOC ACE research from Dr Sami Bensassi and Arisyi Fariza Raz (University of Birmingham), Combatting money laundering: does implementing the FATF recommendations bite? Shehryar Fazli (formerly GI-TOC, now Open Society – Asia Pacific) will talk about his upcoming SOC ACE research on the regional impact of Afghanistan’s drug trade on Pakistan, Iran and Tajikistan in a panel on "Narconomics: Transnational Drug Trafficking & Corruption". Other speakers include: Stevan Dojčinović (Investigative Reporter and Editor, Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, OCCRP, SRB) and, Floriana Bulfon (Investigative Journalist, IT). The discussion will be moderated by Denisse Rodriguez Olivari (Researcher, School of Transnational Governance, EUI, PE/IT). The panel is part of Disruption Network Lab’s conference on "Organised Crime: a Global Business", Friday, 24 November 2023, 19:30 - 21:30 (UK). Register here. Dr Tena Prelec (University of Rijeka) and Dr Peter Techet (IDM Vienna) will moderate an online panel on ‘Ukraine and Croatia: Navigating (Post)-War Hopes and Challenges’ a joint event organised by the University of Rijeka’s Center for Advanced Studies Southeast Europe and IDM Vienna. Speakers will include Professor David Lewis (University of Exeter), Dr Iva Vukušić (University of Utrecht), Dr Senada Šelo Šabić (Institute for Development and International Relations – IRMO, Zagreb), Dr Oleksandr Moskalenko (CAS SEE, University of Rijeka / National Scientific Centre, Bokarius Forensic Science Institute, Kharkiv) and Dr Vanni D'Alessio (University of Naples ‘Federico II’). A CAS SEE and IDM Vienna joint event, Wednesday, 13 December 2023, 16:00-17:30 (UK). Register here. Did you enjoy our newsletter? Share it with your network. Share FOLLOW SOC ACE