SOC ACE researchers contribute expert perspectives on organised crime and illicit trade

A study by Dr Alexander Kupatadze, a criminologist at King’s College London, and Dr Erica Marat, a researcher at Georgetown University, examined changing patterns of serious crime and organised criminal activity across Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In coverage in The New Voice of Ukraine in April 2026, they identified several factors driving these shifts, including weakened law enforcement capacity as officers leave for the front, the wider social impact of prolonged exposure to violence, and the emergence of new black markets as sanctions and disrupted trade routes create opportunities for criminal markets.

Research by Kupatadze and Marat on changing illicit trade networks across Eurasia has also been featured by OC Media. In the publication’s July 2026 article, The South Caucasus route: how sanctioned goods still reach Russia, the researchers discuss how established trade networks and regional expertise are being adapted to facilitate sanctions evasion. Dr Kupatadze highlights the repurposing of Georgia’s established used-car trade and Armenia’s gold and jewellery sector, while Dr Marat discusses the role of regional intermediaries and business connections in facilitating trade with Russia.

The wider SOC ACE research project, Exploring the Consequences of Organised Crime and Illegal Trade Displacement on Eurasia, explores how the conflict has transformed organised crime networks and illicit markets across the region. Sanctions have made some previously legal trade flows illegal, creating new opportunities for smuggling restricted goods, including luxury items, semiconductors and microchips. Disrupted supply chains have also increased demand for deficit products, while illegal arms markets have expanded as weapons are diverted from the frontlines.

Human trafficking has also emerged as a growing concern, driven by large-scale population movements linked to the war, including refugee flows and displacement. At the same time, borderlands and seaports have become key areas for monitoring shifting trafficking routes, new illicit commodities and the actors involved in emerging criminal networks.

The second phase of the SOC ACE research will examine new and emerging forms of illicit activity across affected countries, including actors displaced by the war, networks responding to new economic opportunities created by sanctions, and potential links between criminal activity and political elites.

Together, these findings highlight how conflict and economic disruption can reshape criminal ecosystems beyond the battlefield, creating long-term challenges for governments, businesses and law enforcement agencies across Eurasia.