SOC ACE Newsletter: April 2024

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SOC ACE Monthly Newsletter Our last update covered a range of research, from politically feasible responses to security sector reform (SSR) for addressing organised crime and testing strategic communications and awareness-raising messages for SOC. Get up to date with our previous newsletter now! This month’s newsletter includes: New research projects from SOC ACE on understanding state threats, the evolution of the SOC and development agenda and, the role of global trade hubs in smuggling along the ‘New Silk Road.’ Latest SOC ACE research on organised crime and human rights and migrant smuggling. News channels in Colombia feature SOC ACE research on extortion in Medellín Early findings from SOC ACE research on organised crime and illegal trade displacement on Eurasia. SOC ACE attends World Bank’s Fragility Forum, UNODC, launch of the new Economic Crime Manifesto 2.0 and more. Each month, we’ll be showcasing our latest research, news & events. Click on the subscribe button to receive our newsletter. Subscribe New SOC ACE Research Understanding State Threats Matthew Redhead (RUSI) is leading new research looking at the escalating trend of state threats, characterised by hostile activities from other states and their proxies. Following on from SOC ACE supported State Threats Taskforce workshops led by RUSI in 2023, where experts from various fields identified the need for a more nuanced definition and understanding of these threats. Redhead's project aims to build a clearer conceptual framework for understanding state threats as well as mapping out their current character, activities, vectors and more. Read more. Smuggling along the new silk road: The role of Global Trade Hubs New research, led by Dr Sami Bensassi (University of Birmingham), examines the susceptibility of Global Trade Hubs (GTH) along the new maritime silk road, to being used by international crime organisations and rogue states for smuggling goods, evading sanctions and moving assets. The research focuses on hubs that facilitate trade between Asia and Europe and are characterised by large port infrastructure and trade flows that often surpass states’ GDP levels, and which commonly form part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Through comparative analysis the research aims to uncover the illicit finance risks associated with such GTHs and provide an analytical toolkit for use by policymakers and practitioners, including in the business community, to assess these risks. Read more. The evolution of SOC and Development: Interactions in policy and practice Dr Sasha Jesperson is leading new reserach that unpacks the relationship between SOC and development in policy and seeks to identify a roadmap for future work in this area. Initial research questions include exploring the emergence of the relationship between SOC and Development as a policy agenda, tracing its evolution in focus regions, and analysing its implications on a global scale (e.g., UN and OECD). The study seeks to understand the factors driving the evolution of this policy agenda and the underlying interests shaping it. Furthermore, it aims to consider implications for the future policy agenda on SOC and Development. Read more. Illicit Finance and Russian Foreign Policy: New Dynamics and Linkages In this current project phase, Professor David Lewis (Exeter University), Dr Tena Prelec (University of Rijeka) and Olivia Allison will explore critical research questions about Russia's evolving illicit financial flows (IFF) and corruption mechanisms. The research will examine the impact of these factors on the changing nature of the Russian regime, Russia’s foreign policy, and Russia’s policies towards Ukraine. It examines the scale and pattern ofIFF and economic crime in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories and assesses the implications of Russian economic policies on the reintegration and reconstruction of these areas. The project approach leverages innovative methods such as big-data analytics and OSINT to build a unique database on Russian economic crime and IFF in Russian occupied Ukraine, focussing on two interlinked themes: Russia's Occupation and Russia's War Economy. Read more. IFF Pyramid: Understanding the challenges of countering IFFs. This research builds on the findings of Tuesday Reitano's Political Won't? Understanding the challenges of countering IFFs and subsequent case studies from Michael McLaggan and Kristina Amerhauser on addressing IFFs in East and Southern Africa, and the Mekong, both looking into the three types of flows that together enable illicit finance: financial flows, trade flows and informal flows. This phase will explore and analyse how responses to these three problems can fit together for a more effective response to IFFs.The project will analyse current responses to these three types of flows in the focal regions, discreetly and if and how they're being integrated. It will then build on these regional foundations, to include the global illicit financial infrastructure. Read more. SOC ACE Updates El Colombiano, one of the largest newspapers in Colombia and the largest in the Antioquia region, recently produced a report on extortion in Medellín, using data from the SOC ACE funded Medellín demonstration project, led by Professors Christopher Blattman and Santiago Tobón. Professor Tobón also appeared on both local (Teleantioquia Noticias) and national (Noticias Caracol) media outlets for an interview to discuss findings from a city-wide survey conducted by the project to understand how the gangs operate, and their types and sources of revenue. The survey measured the extent of extortion in Medellín’s neighbourhoods, which is believed to be the second-largest revenue source of the gangs and largely underreported. Dr Caryn Peiffer (University of Bristol) and Professor Nic Cheeseman (University of Birmingham) have recently had two journal articles drawing on their SOC ACE research, Fighting serious organised crimeand corruption in Albania: testing messaging approaches accepted for publication; Opening the door to anti-system leaders? Anti-corruption campaigns and the global rise of populism in the ‘European Journal of Political Research’ and Getting the message right: What are the impacts of counter-SOC awareness raising strategies? in ‘Behavioural Public Policy Journal.’ Last month, the Centre for Finance and Security (CFS) at RUSI, in partnership with the SOC-ACE programme, convened a workshop State Threats Workshop: Perspectives from Germany and the UK to discuss the current threats Germany is facing from state actors. The roundtable brought together experts, academics and policymakers from Germany and the UK, as well as representatives from the private sector and civil society. This engagement forms part of the cross-disciplinary activities of the State Threats Taskforce (STT) run by the CFS at RUSI, which was established to deepen understandings of state threat actors, vectors and vulnerabilities, and offer realistic policy responses for both the UK and its allies. Read the full conference report from Eliza Lockheart of RUSI here. SOC ACE researchers recently attended the World Bank Fragility Forum, contributing insights and perspectives on addressing global challenges. Professors SantiagoTobón (EAFIT Universidad) and Benjamin Lessing (University of Chicago) joined colleagues on a panel sponsored by the Inter-American Development Bank on ‘Addressing development challenges posed by criminal violence in middle-income countries’, while Professor Heather Marquette and Alina Rocha Menocal participated in the Forum and met with World Bank and US government colleagues to discuss SOC ACE’s research and potential areas for shared learning. Professor Heather Marquette (University of Birmingham) discussed SOC ACE’s research on illicit finance as part of a panel with FCDO colleagues on the ways in which illicit finance leads to instability at a recent FCDO Conflict Conference. SOC ACE researchers, including Professor Heather Marquette, Tom Keatinge, who gave one of the keynote speeches and Dr Maria Nizzero - attended the launch of the Economic Crime Manifesto 2.0 led by the APPGs on Anti-Corruption and Responsible Tax and Fair Business Banking. Dr Alexander Kupatadze (KCL) and Dr Erica Marat (NDU) are exploring the consequences of organised crime and illegal trade displacement in Eurasia. The second phase of their research has produced preliminary findings leadingto the formulation of three hypotheses for further testing: (1) Organised crime that has been displaced from Ukraine to neighbouring countries is mostly conditioned by familiarity with political system, pre-existing networks, commonality in language and cultural affinity (2) Organised crime that remained in Ukraine has been mostly driven by the nexus between state-affiliated actors and criminal activity and new opportunities within criminal markets generated by the war (3) The emergence of illicit flows has captured the attention of criminal networks in neighbouring countries and created a rent-seeking opportunity for political elites, with the extent of the latter’s involvement varying between countries and contexts. Latest SOC ACE Publications Human Rights and Organised Crime Agendas: Four Areas of Convergence for Policymaking Ana Paula Oliveira, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) Without aiming to provide an exhaustive or comprehensive account of all human rights issues deriving from the workings of organised crime, this briefing note identifies four areas that justify greater attention to the fundamental rights of natural persons, and convergence in the human rights and crime agendas. Read more. Migrant Smuggling Ana Paula de Oliveira & Prof Prem Mahadevan (GI-TOC) This briefing note summarises GI-TOC’s research and experiences in engaging with and supporting civil society responses to organised crime. This is provided in the context of the ongoing threats and shrinking space for civil society, and a need for policymakers and officials to understand civil society’s role, value and potential. Read more. Upcoming Events SOC ACE researchers are pleased to be leading the Rethinking stabilisation and responding to transnational threats roundtable at the BISA 2024 Conference Whose International Studies? at HyattHotel/Centenary Square, Birmingham on Friday 7th June 2024 at 13:45PM(UK Time). Speakers include Professor Heather Marquette (University ofBirmingham), Dr David Lewis (University of Exeter), Larry Attree (Independent Consultant), Sarah Fares (GI TOC), Aoife J McCullough (LSE), Tom Rodwell (FCDO) and Emily Winterbotham (RUSI). Did you enjoy our newsletter? Share it with your network. Share FOLLOW SOC ACE